CITIC Securities: The implementation of the rules on tax refunds for departing visitors, promoting and accelerating the expansion to boost domestic demand.

date
30/04/2025
CITIC Securities research report stated that since the beginning of this year, China's consumer policies have been comprehensively upgraded and innovative, with policies in various specific areas being successively introduced, and the policy system gradually improving. Recently, the State Administration of Taxation issued detailed regulations for the revision of the exit tax refund management measures, promoting the implementation of the "buy now, refund immediately" exit tax policy in three aspects: 1) simplifying the registration process, shortening the time, expanding the coverage of refund shops to include a wider range of small and medium-sized retailers; 2) increasing the refund amount and lowering the starting refund point to expand the scope of price band scenarios, benefiting high-quality domestic goods; 3) further enhancing the convenience of tax refunds. According to our calculations, optimistically, the potential space of the exit tax refund market is close to the hundred billion level, which is expected to further boost consumption and expand domestic demand. It is recommended to closely monitor the effects of the policy, and potential beneficiary sectors include: traditional retail sectors with strong operational capabilities, leading companies in transformation and upgrading, consumer infrastructure and related operators, travel service providers, and tourist destinations.