Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the US first quarter GDP growth rate to -0.8%

Goldman Sachs' latest research report indicates that the expansion of the US trade deficit in goods in March exceeded expectations. Both imports and exports of goods increased in March. The main reason for the expansion of the trade deficit is the increase in imports of consumer goods, which may reflect a "rush" of imports before the tariff hike. Details from the leading economic indicators report show that import growth is significantly strong compared to our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while export growth is moderately stronger, and inventory accumulation is accelerating. Overall, we have lowered our tracking forecast for US first quarter GDP by 0.6 percentage points to -0.8%. US GDP data will be released on the evening of the 30th.