Economists: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, with the timing in the second half of the year.

Melanie Baker, Senior Economist at Royal London Asset Management, stated in her report that she still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2025, but not before the second half of the year, when clearer signs of economic slowdown are projected to appear. She pointed out that the risk of recession has increased, and the outlook for global and US economic growth has deteriorated. However, she is currently in the camp of "economic slowdown" rather than "economic recession" as the equal tariffs have been suspended, and there are signs that Trump is responding to market pressures.