CITIC Securities: How does the fiscal pressure in the United States affect US debt?

Guosen Securities research report stated that although the US Congress passed the 2025 fiscal year budget resolution in April of this year, the resolution does not have legal force and cannot directly allocate funds. It is expected that the budget bill for this year needs to be passed by September 30th, otherwise Congress will need to pass a temporary funding bill to avoid the risk of a government shutdown. If Trump's tax reduction bill lands this year, the pressure on the US fiscal deficit will further increase. Market concerns about fiscal pressure and inflation risk will continue to lead to medium-term premium on US Treasury yields and partially high inflation expectations, thereby keeping the 10-year US Treasury yield central or a period of time above 4.0%. The opening of the downside space for US Treasury yields in the future may require observation of Trump's policies, the pressure on the US economy, and the statements of the Federal Reserve.