When the world is embroiled in a new round of tariff games, the probability of a US economic recession is equivalent to "flipping a coin".

According to the Wise Money APP, the latest survey report from Bloomberg shows that renowned economists consulted and interviewed are generally of the opinion that, due to the global tariff battle triggered by the Trump administration, in the new round of global trade game and the so-called "trade tug-of-war" that China, the EU, and Canada have been embroiled in due to US tariff policies, the probability of the US falling into an economic recession in the next 12 months has jumped from 30% shown in the survey in March to 45%. This also means that the probability of the US economy falling into a recession is almost equivalent to flipping a coin.