Orient Securities: Maintains "Buy" rating on Shanxi Fenjiu, target price 149.53 yuan.

Orient Securities' research report points out that Shanxi Fenjiu's market focus in 2026 will remain on stabilizing channel profitability, and it is speculated that there will still be support measures for channels in 2026Q3, with expense spending likely to be relatively proactive. At present, the industry is still in a phase of deep adjustment. The company maintains flexibility in its operating rhythm and puts channel experience first, which helps enhance channel confidence. Early channel support is expected to continue translating into consumer demand, laying the foundation for sustainable growth. Leveraging the depth advantage of its product structure, it has solidified its base in the province and around Shanxi, while performing steadily in high-ground markets and south of the Yangtze River. After years and multiple rounds of state-owned enterprise reform, Fenjiu has fully combined a market-oriented assessment mechanism with a prudent internal control mechanism. The company's governance capability has improved significantly, which will help Fenjiu seize the opportunities in this round of baijiu consumption transformation. The company's net profit attributable to parent is forecast at 9.6 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for 2026-2028, respectively. Referring to the industry average valuation level, a 19x price-to-earnings ratio is assigned for 2026, the target price of 149.53 yuan is maintained, and the "Buy" rating is maintained.