Fed begins rate meeting today! Two key points: Warsh may cast the decisive vote; how hawkish will the latest dot plot be?

On Tuesday local time, the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting will be held at its headquarters in Washington. Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is unwilling to give any forward guidance on the future path of interest rates, persistently high inflation, oil prices at $100 per barrel, combined with his repeated emphasis on the need to stabilize prices and his attention to signals from financial market pricing, have left little suspense about the direction of the next policy move. After the release of a new round of inflation and employment data, interest rate market pricing shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike this week has surged to nearly 90%, which is within the fully priced range. A review by reporters found that among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the divergence over whether to raise rates may be far greater than at the July meeting, and Fed Chair Warsh's vote may determine whether rates are ultimately raised. In addition to this week's rate decision, the outside world will also try to seek clues about the future policy path from the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot.