Bernstein: Persistent supply shortages could push oil prices to $120 to $150.

Bernstein said that because Middle East oil shipments continue to run below pre-war levels, the market is in a state of "chronic undersupply," and Brent crude could rise to $120 to $150 per barrel. Analysts Neil Beveridge and Brian He and others said in a September 14 report that the previous forecast of Brent crude at $90 per barrel for 2026 "has been overtaken by reality," with risks skewed to the upside. Currently, combined oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal are below 7 million barrels per day; before the conflict, this figure was about 20 million barrels per day. In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve may hit its legal lower limit of 252 million barrels by the end of September. Although a theoretical lower limit of 70 million barrels means another 180 million barrels of reserves could still be released, "we are approaching the limits of drawing on the strategic reserve."