Shenwan Hongyuan Research: Maintains "Buy" rating for CITIC Securities, optimistic about operational development for the entire year.

According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research, the trend of concentration in the securities industry is accelerating, benefiting leading institutions significantly. The growth rate of CITIC Securities profit share is significantly higher than that of its net assets, reflecting the companys superior endogenous operating capacity compared to the industry. In terms of segmented businesses, driven by key industry consolidation cases, the net income CR5 of the fiercely competitive brokerage business has reached a critical turning point, rising from a long-stable 36% to 39%; the concentration in investment banking and asset management is even higher and continues to trend upward, with CR5 increasing by 12.7 and 12.5 percentage points respectively to 56.3% and 66.6%; the estimated CR5 for financial investment income has risen from 40.4% to 53.8%. CITIC Securities has solidified its advantage in brokerage market share; the income share in investment banking and asset management has expanded; and superior data utilization capabilities have driven an increase in investment income share. The companys core management team is stable over the long term, with forward-looking and robust execution of strategies, leading to a significantly better absolute ROE level and stability compared to peers, demonstrating superior ability to navigate through cycles. The wealth management, technological innovation, and international businesses are nurturing hopes for an uplift in ROE central tendency, serving as important anchors for medium to long-term valuation pricing. Considering the companys solid overall business foundation, leading market share, and forward-looking in wealth management, technological innovation, and international business, it is expected to be among the first beneficiaries of industry ecosystem optimization, and positive expectations for business development throughout the year are strong. The profit forecasts for the company for 2026-2028 are maintained at 40.127 billion yuan / 44.391 billion yuan / 49.508 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of +33.4% / +10.6% / +11.5%. The current price corresponds to a PB of 1.35x / 1.24x / 1.14x for 2026-2028, maintaining a Buy rating.