Everbright Futures: Non-farm payrolls hit a new low for the year, making the bottom range for gold more solid.

Since the second half of the year, the trend of gold prices has shown signs of desensitization concerning the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, with the main market speculation focusing on whether the Federal Reserve "dares" to raise interest rates. Previously, U.S. economic data performed resiliently, but inflation data appeared somewhat stubborn, and expectations of interest rate hikes once dominated the market, especially as the probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting continued to rise. However, with the performance of U.S. stocks weakening at high levels and the instability reflected in employment data, the market has questioned the Fed, particularly the "hawkish" stance of Waller. The unexpected weakening of non-farm payroll data directly undermined the previous market pricing for a rate hike in September, leading to a simultaneous decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, reinforcing the viewpoint that the U.S. is struggling between high debt and stubborn inflation. Additionally, the previous outflows from gold ETFs dealt a blow to the market, but data from the World Gold Council shows that central banks net purchased 289 tons of gold in the second quarter, setting a historical record, particularly as the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases for five consecutive months, boosting market confidence again. Therefore, overall, the current position that gold is in a bottom range may be more solid, suggesting that it is advisable to accumulate positions on dips, while also paying attention to the risk of short-term exuberance and profit-taking after gold makes consecutive gains.