Guangda Securities: July U.S. non-farm payroll data turns negative, interest rate hike expectations continue to converge.

According to a research report by Everbright Securities, the U.S. added fewer non-farm jobs than expected in July. From the perspective of interest rate hikes, the negative non-farm data for July, along with the continued decline in the labor participation rate and wage growth, all indicate a loosening of resilience in the labor market. If subsequent data shows that inflation is under control, market expectations for interest rate hikes are likely to continue to converge. The negative turn in July's non-farm data suggests that the resilience of the U.S. economy is beginning to weaken under the backdrop of high inflation and high interest rates, and the World Cup boost effect is not particularly evident. If the situation between the U.S. and Iran remains stable, inflation data in the third quarter is expected to continue to decline, providing Wash with more confidence to guide the previously highly "hawkish" Federal Reserve voting members towards a shift, boosting expectations for a "dovish" stance.