Experts predict that China's GDP growth rate for the second quarter of this year will be 4.5% year-on-year.

The National Bureau of Statistics will release major economic indicators such as GDP growth rate, industrial output, consumer spending, and investment for the second quarter and first half of the year on July 15. According to economists participating in the chief survey of First Financial, the average forecast for the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2026 is 4.5%. They believe that the "K-shaped differentiation" pattern of China's economy is further highlighted, as it is currently undergoing a transition from old to new growth drivers. Macroeconomic policies are expected to continue supporting growth in the second half of the year. However, the new growth drivers are not yet sufficient to offset the decline of the old ones, indicating that the Chinese economy is still in the pains of transitioning to new growth drivers. It is recommended to make policy reserves in advance, strengthen situation monitoring and risk warning, develop contingency plans, and proactively hedge uncertainties in the internal and external environment through forward-looking policies.