Market analysis: Trading bets on the end of the Australian Central Bank's rate hikes cycle, the decline of the Australian dollar is expected to continue.
The Australian dollar has weakened during the Asian session, as market expectations for currency policies have significantly shifted in favor of the US dollar. This decline may just be the beginning of a deep downward trend. The softening of the Australian economy, combined with a global decline in energy prices, has led overnight index futures contracts to indicate that the rate-hiking cycle of the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely over. Conversely, market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more this year. In just two months, market expectations have completely reversed: previously, the market predicted that Australia would raise interest rates twice within six months, while the Federal Reserve would keep rates unchanged. Now, the economic prospects of the two countries are diverging significantly. Although officials from the Reserve Bank of Australia stated this month that they would consider raising interest rates again if necessary, investors generally believe that Australia no longer needs to further tighten its monetary environment.
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