In May, the central bank's open market operations for buying and selling government bonds continued at a relatively low level.
Yesterday, the central bank released the liquidity injection situation of various central bank tools in May 2026. The data shows that the central bank's open market buying and selling of government bonds had a net injection of 50 billion yuan in May. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Gold Certainty, believes that this trend is influenced by multiple factors. Currently, the market liquidity is relatively abundant, and there is no need for the central bank to inject long-term liquidity on a large scale through open market transactions of government bonds. This reflects the central bank's flexible conduct of various operations in the open market, guiding market interest rates to run smoothly around policy rates through the coordination of quantity and price. It is worth noting that industry insiders mentioned that, including open market transactions of government bonds, the central bank has been using various liquidity tools more flexibly recently. While maintaining the current direction of monetary policy, there are both a switch in rhythm from "tightening before loosening" and flexible regulation of "filling peaks and valleys." Looking ahead, Wang Qing predicts that, influenced by multiple factors such as the evolution of the international situation, the slowdown in international crude oil prices, the cooling of domestic inflation expectations, and fluctuations in macroeconomic data in April, the yield on the 10-year government bond may fluctuate downward in the near future. This may also be a reason why the net injection scale of government bond buying and selling by the central bank in May remains at a relatively low level. "Looking ahead, if the yield on the 10-year government bond falls below 1.7%, it cannot be ruled out that the net injection scale of government bond buying and selling may be further reduced, or even the possibility of suspending open market transactions of government bonds again."
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