Natural rubber prices surge, propelled by multiple factors

Since the beginning of this year, the price of natural rubber has continued to rise, reaching a high level in nearly two years. Currently, the spot price of natural rubber is in the range of 17,500-17,900 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the beginning of 2026, an increase of about 14%. The futures price is at 17,460 yuan/ton, up 11% from the beginning of the year. Analysts point out the reasons for the current rise in natural rubber prices as follows: From the supply side, first, there is a structural shortage of global natural rubber. According to the Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association, global demand for natural rubber is expected to increase to 15.62 million tons in 2026, while production is estimated to be only 15.324 million tons, resulting in a significant supply-demand gap. Second, there are expectations of disruption due to extreme weather. According to the National Climate Center, May this year will enter an El Nio state, putting natural rubber-producing regions at risk of high temperatures, droughts, and reduced production, further exacerbating market concerns about tightening supply. From the demand side, the global automotive industry is moderately recovering in 2026, with continued growth in production and sales of new energy vehicles in China, as well as a rebound in tire replacement and export demand from Europe and the United States, coupled with increasing consumption in emerging markets such as Africa, providing stable downstream demand for natural rubber and solid support for prices. In addition, conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices, directly driving up synthetic rubber prices, indirectly supporting natural rubber prices.