"" The "safety supervision storm" is coming, where will coal prices go? Multiple institutions predict: beware of falling after a pulse.

On the morning of May 25th, domestic commodity futures opened with coking coal and coke hitting their daily limit up. In terms of news, on May 22nd, a gas explosion occurred at the Shanzhou Coal Mine in Shanxi Tongzhou Group in Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, Shanxi Province. With the intervention of the Ministry of Emergency Management and the tough investigation by the State Council accident investigation team, a "storm" targeting coal mine safety supervision is brewing. Influenced by this, the expectation of contraction in raw coal supply is increasing. On May 24th, an unnamed coal industry insider told reporters that based on past experience, this Shanxi mine disaster will most likely trigger a large-scale safety inspection in the coal industry, a new wave of large-scale investigation and rectification, which will definitely affect production. However, from a safety perspective, some large coal mines cannot stop production for too long. Retrospecting on nearly ten years of historical data, New Century Futures points out that the probability of coking coal futures rising on the day of a major coal mine accident is as high as 85.7%, with an average increase of around 1.59% on that day. The market is highly sensitive to expectations of supply contraction. Research from New Century Futures shows that although major safety accidents can ignite market enthusiasm in the short term, the sustainability of the market is extremely weak. In similar past accidents, there was a 71.4% probability that coking coal futures prices would fall in the month of the accident, with an average decline of 6.11%. The "pulse-rise and month-end decline" pattern often becomes the norm.