Market Analysis: The extension of the exemption by the United States may have difficulty boosting Russian oil exports, as production capacity is already near its limit.

Traders cited shipping data indicating that the United States' exemption policy for Russian crude oil exports has been extended again, but this is unlikely to significantly increase Russia's export volume as current shipping levels are already close to infrastructure limits. Market participants say that given Russia has already ramped up exports to the limit to relieve pressure on its oil system, this extension of the exemption is unlikely to boost exports significantly. Since March, multiple attacks by Ukraine on key Russian refineries and energy infrastructure have caused processing disruptions, making more crude oil available for export. According to traders, data from the London Stock Exchange Group show that in the first two weeks of May, exports and transportation through Russian western ports increased by about 150,000 barrels per day compared to April, representing a 9% increase. Between May 1st and 15th, an average of about 2.35-2.4 million barrels of Urals crude, KEBCO crude, and Siberian light crude were shipped from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk ports, higher than the approximately 2.2 million barrels in April. Traders said this level is close to the capacity limit of the Russian oil pipeline transportation company. "The system is already running tight, with little room for further increases," one trader said.