J.P. Morgan: National Australia Bank maintains a positive outlook, despite the impact of the Iran situation and spending shocks.

Despite profit forecasts being impacted by the Iran conflict and software write-downs, Jefferies maintains a positive stance on National Australia Bank. After the bank announced that it would increase its credit impairment provision to 706 million Australian dollars for the first half of the financial year, analyst Andrew Lyons lowered his earnings per share forecast for the 2026 financial year by 16%. Lyons had previously forecasted a provision of only 440 million Australian dollars. In a report to clients, he stated that due to changes in the bank's software capitalization policy affecting investment spending, expenses in the second half of the year will be higher than previously expected. However, looking beyond the 2026 financial year, Lyons only lowered his earnings per share forecasts for the 2027 and 2028 financial years by 2%. Jefferies lowered its target price by 4.6% to 47.73 Australian dollars, but maintains a buy rating on the stock. The stock fell by 3.6% to 41.01 Australian dollars.