CITIC Futures: Supply and demand may see temporary tightening expectations, supporting the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices.

SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 2000 yuan to 169,500 yuan, and lithium ore rose by $25 to $2415. As of April 12, 2026, the number of applications for trading in old cars for new ones has exceeded 1.67 million, accounting for a higher proportion of car consumption compared to 2025. On the one hand, this reflects the effectiveness of policies, but also reflects the weakness of first-time consumption potential. The rise in prices has led to weaker spot transactions, with a price difference of nearly 4000 yuan between May and September. The current increase is not driven by tight spot supply. The expected increase in demand coupled with the impact of previous supply disruptions may become apparent, and the supply and demand may face expectations of tightening, supporting the price increase. However, it remains to be seen if it can break through its previous high.