CITIC Securities: Uncertainty in the Middle East chess game Continuation of price differentiation in bulk commodity prices in the second quarter

CICC's research report stated that since March 2026, the Middle East conflict has caused rotation in the rise and fall of commodity prices, with strong expectations for the rise of energy and chemical products, while some basic metal varieties have experienced price adjustments due to slowing global economic growth and other demand-related factors. Looking ahead to the second quarter, the duration of the Middle East conflict may become an important variable affecting commodity price fluctuations. If the conflict continues, the price logic of commodities since March is expected to be further strengthened. If the conflict ends, demand-related logic for different varieties is expected to dominate price changes. Overall, it continues to be optimistic about the performance of energy and chemical prices in the second quarter; at the same time, attention can also be paid to disturbances in the supply side, as well as lithium carbonate and electrolytic aluminum, which have clear support on the demand side.