Galaxy Securities A-share strategy: The changing trend of oil prices will still be a key variable affecting the market structure in the near term.

Galaxy Securities A-share market investment outlook pointed out that from an external environment perspective, the military conflict between the US and Iran continues to escalate, and the prospects for ceasefire negotiations are still uncertain. Trump set April 6 as the deadline, and Iran's counterattacks are intensifying and expanding. With high uncertainty in the conflict and trends still unclear, the global equity market is expected to remain in a high volatility environment, and A-shares may exhibit volatile rotation characteristics. The changing trend of oil prices will still be a key variable affecting the recent market structure. The increase in oil prices will push up global inflation expectations, the delay in rate cuts will lead to a marginal tightening of global liquidity, strengthening the trading logic of energy substitution sectors and the defensive role of defensive sectors, while partially suppressing the performance of offensive sectors such as technology growth; if oil prices fall back in the expectation of easing conflict and loose expectations rise, it will be beneficial for the recovery of growth stocks. From an internal environment perspective, the core logic of policy support, fund entry, and China's asset revaluation remains unchanged, and external conflicts have not shaken the long-term bullish foundation of A-shares. Meanwhile, in April, listed companies have entered a period of concentrated disclosure of performance, market clues gradually shift to fundamental verification, sectors with high performance certainty and continuous improvement in business conditions will become the core focus of funds.