CITIC construction investment: The ship traffic volume in the Hormuz Strait is still very low, emphasizing the medium and long-term trend of the oil shipping industry.

The CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the traffic volume in the Hormuz Strait has plummeted. Since the closure in February, the daily traffic volume has dropped from a normal 140 vessels to only a very small number of special vessels passing through, almost completely closed. Focus should be on the actual trade impact of crude oil, refined oil inventory consumption, etc. The longer the strait is closed, the greater the global inventory reduction and systemic risk. The oil shipping rates are evolving in three stages: during the conflict period, rates will rise, vessel allocation will increase shipping distances and push up rates, and after the unblocking, the oil-grabbing market situation may drive rates up for more than 2 months. The oil shipping cycle is expected to continue until 2029-2031. Due to factors such as shipyard capacity shrinking, aging VLCC fleet leading to a gap in shipping capacity, shadow fleets struggling to enter mainstream markets, longer shipping distances, and stranded vessels in the strait consuming capacity, the oil shipping cycle is expected to extend until 2029-2031.