Many institutions have raised the probability of an economic recession in the United States.

Due to the prolonged conflict between the US and Iran bringing additional downside risks to the US economy, several institutions have recently raised the probability of the US economy entering a recession. According to the US Consumer News and Business Channel on the 25th, models from Moody's Analytics show that the probability of the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has increased its prediction of this probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and EY-Parthenon respectively forecast the probability of the US economy entering a recession at 45% and 40%. Under normal circumstances, this probability should be around 20%. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, stated that the concern is that the risk of recession is "uncomfortably high and still rising," and economic recession is a real threat. If current high oil prices persist until late May to the end of the second quarter, "the US economy will enter a recession."