Insider: Trump administration seriously underestimated Iran's willingness to block the Strait of Hormuz.
According to multiple sources familiar with the situation, the US Department of Defense and National Security Council severely underestimated Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in planning actions against Iran. Sources said that President Trump's national security team failed to fully consider the potential consequences of the worst-case scenarios described by some officials currently facing the government. Although key officials from the Department of Energy and Treasury attended some official planning meetings before the action began, the critical institutional analysis and forecasting that had been vital in past government decision-making processes were seen as secondary considerations at the time. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and US Secretary of Energy Wright played crucial roles in the planning and execution of the conflict, but President Trump tended to rely on a tight circle of advisors in the decision-making process, leading to discussions on the potential economic consequences of Iran's possible responses being marginalized among agencies. Officials said on Thursday that measures by the US government to alleviate the increasingly severe economic impacts may take several weeks to take effect, including the Pentagon's escort of oil tankers it currently deems too dangerous through the strait. Meanwhile, Trump continues to downplay the turbulence and dangers in the energy market.
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