CITIC Securities: Securities industry is recommended to focus on two investment themes.
Guosen Securities research report believes that the profit of the securities industry in 2025 will reach a record high, but the stock price performance is significantly different from previous bull market cycles. Looking back on history, the industry has gone through the journey from "driven by single brokerage business" to "opening up incremental space through innovative business" to "business cycle driven by policy cycles." During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the industry is expected to move towards a new stage of "leveraged-driven ROE improvement," ushering in four major marginal changes: ROE moving from "continuous decline" to "gradual increase", development shifting from "focus on expansion and innovation" to "deepening existing market shares", industry landscape moving from "diverse development" to "supporting the superior and restricting the inferior", and operations transitioning from "volatile fluctuations" to "steady and healthy development." The report suggests focusing on two investment themes: 1) Building around top-tier investment banks, with the ability to increase market share, net profit margin, and leverage ratio, and be "aircraft carrier-level" securities firms; 2) Medium-sized securities companies that are expected to enter the top tier through mergers and acquisitions and refined operations.
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