Strategist: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds is expected to fall below 4% in the first quarter, and the Federal Reserve's policy easing may be beneficial.

SEB Research's Chief Strategist Jussi Hiljanen stated in a report that the institution continues to expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to fall to 3.90% in the first quarter of 2026, but acknowledges that its decline faces challenges. He said, "To reach our target of 3.90% in the first quarter, the market needs to regain confidence in rate cuts." He said that recent hawkish comments from the Fed have increased uncertainty in the near term, but SEB Research's baseline scenario is still that market expectations for the Fed's policy will shift towards dovish in the next three to four months, leading to lower yields, although there is upside risk in this scenario. Data from Tradeweb shows that during the Asian trading session, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 4.089%.