Institution looks ahead to US September non-farm payroll report - weak employment market trend may continue, but talk of collapse premature.

date
20/11/2025
1. Rockefeller: It is expected that the non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000 people, indicating that the job market remains stable; the previously announced labor force data clearly show a weak trend. 2. Indeed Hiring Lab: Compared to previous reports, it is not expected that there will be significant changes in the September non-farm employment report, and the current soft trend in the labor market is expected to continue. 3. Pantheon Macroeconomics: Any data that seems unsatisfactory at present may continue to ferment due to a six-week data vacuum period, and the negative impact of non-farm data may be magnified. 4. Reuters survey: It is expected that non-farm employment will increase by 50,000 people in September, economists believe that the data for August was suppressed by seasonal anomalies, or will be adjusted based on past trends. 5. Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly slowing down, and it is widely expected that this trend will continue, with the labor market hovering at the bottom for a period of time, but not entering a recession. 6. Nationwide: It is expected that non-farm employment will increase by 40,000 to 50,000 people in September, further confirming that the summer's weakness in the job market has continued into the fall, with companies maintaining a stance of not hiring or firing. 7. Agricole Credit: It is expected that non-farm employment will increase by 55,000 people in September, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%; the labor market seems to be cooling down, but not collapsing, still showing a situation of "low hiring, low firing". 8. Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected that non-farm employment data for September to November will be "very weak", seasonal hiring may be very weak, and layoffs will be unusually high, which should be enough to persuade the middle ground of the Fed to lean towards the camp of rate cuts. 9. Goldman Sachs: It is expected that non-farm employment will increase by 80,000 people in September, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%; the risk is hidden in the undisclosed October data, with expectations that non-farm employment in October will decrease by 50,000 people. 10. UBS Bank: It is expected that non-farm employment will increase by about 40,000 people in September, market reactions may be smaller than usual, as more information about the job market can already be obtained from data released by private institutions. 11. Consulting firm RSM: The data for September, along with the revised values for July and August, will show that the job outlook is slightly better than widely expected, but not worth boasting about, as the labor market is still struggling to support itself, as is the overall U.S. economy.