Silicon Industry Sub-association: Supply Stage Overabundance Leads to Continuous Decline in Monocrystalline Silicon Wafer Prices

On March 7th, the Silicon Industry Branch issued a document stating that silicon wafer prices continued to decline this week. The average transaction price for M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers (182mm/150m) remained at 2.05 yuan/piece, holding steady on a weekly basis; the average transaction price for N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers (182mm/130m) dropped to 1.95 yuan/piece, a weekly decrease of 1.52%; the average transaction price for G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210mm/150m) dropped to 2.80 yuan/piece, a weekly decrease of 3.11%. The main reason for this round of price decline is due to supply and demand factors. In terms of supply, the silicon wafer output in March is expected to exceed 70GW, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 9.4%. According to the production plans of various companies, no company has plans to reduce production in March. Currently, the total inventory of silicon wafers has exceeded 10 days, leading to a significant increase in sales pressure in the supply chain, and market competition will enter a heated stage. The main reasons for this are as follows: firstly, in order to maintain their market share, most companies are operating at full capacity. As of now, the average operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has reached over 85%. Secondly, during the production line adjustment process, companies have chosen to layout in advance, with the diagonal size of the M10L (183.75mm) silicon wafer specifications adjusted from 247mm to 256mm. Thirdly, a significant reduction in operating rates will significantly impact non-silicon costs. Currently, the mainstream N-type silicon wafer products have undercut cash costs, so companies will strengthen their fine cost management. In terms of demand, there is a significant increase in battery production and a recovery in component demand in the first quarter. For batteries, the transaction price for P-type M10 monocrystalline PERC cells is 0.375 yuan/W, the transaction price for N-type Topcon cells is 0.46 yuan/W, and the N/P price difference is maintained at 0.085 yuan/W. It is reported that domestic battery production in March is around 62GW, a significant increase from February. As for components, the average transaction price for 182mm monofacial modules remains at 0.93 yuan/W, with some scattered module prices showing noticeable increases. As domestic projects gradually start in the first quarter, driving demand growth, component prices are relatively supported. This week, the operating rates of two frontline companies are maintained at 80% and 95% respectively. The operating rates of integrated companies range from 80% to 100%, while the rest of the companies have increased their operating rates between 75% and 100%. Through the calculation of the above supply and demand quantities, it can be seen that the domestic silicon wafer supply in March (excluding exports) is 64GW, and the battery demand (excluding exports) is approximately 59GW. Therefore, the situation of temporary oversupply in the domestic silicon wafer sector in March is quite evident.