Guo Mingqi: The only foldable product Apple (AAPL.US) is researching is the MacBook expected to be mass-produced in 2027.

On March 7th, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingqi wrote that he has been asked multiple times recently whether Apple (AAPL.US) plans to mass produce a foldable iPhone or iPad in 2025 or 2026. Guo Mingqi stated that his latest research shows that the only foldable product Apple currently has a clear development schedule for is a MacBook with a 20.3" display, expected to be mass produced in 2027. It is worth noting that on March 6th, Guo Mingqi lowered Apple's shipment expectations. He mentioned that the market consensus for iPhone shipments in 2024 was previously 220-225 million units, but this has now been revised downwards to closer to 200 million units. If Apple fails to introduce a generative AI service exceeding market expectations this year, Nvidia's market value is likely to surpass Apple's. According to the latest data released by market research firm Counterpoint, in the first six weeks of 2024, Apple's smartphone sales dropped by 24% year-on-year, causing their ranking to fall to fourth place. Analysts attribute the decline in iPhone sales to intense market competition, particularly from Huawei, whose smartphone sales surged by 64% during the same period. IDC China's senior analyst Guo Tianxiang pointed out to Titanium Media App, "The main competition for Apple comes from other high-end Android products, mainly represented by Huawei, which puts significant pressure on Apple. Since the start of 2024, Apple's sales performance has been pessimistic, while Android products priced above 4000 yuan have been selling well." Regarding progress in AI, Apple has been slow to make public moves. An investor noted that AI is a potential positive factor for Apple, but also a source of instability. The impact of AI terminals on stimulating upgrades is still unknown, which could potentially lead to further declines in Apple's stock price. Recently, Goldman Sachs removed Apple from its "best buy list" due to concerns about long-term weak iPhone sales. In the past two trading days, Apple's market value has evaporated over a trillion RMB due to the EU fine and declining sales. Barclays Bank analyst Tim Long has also expressed concerns about poor sales of the iPhone 15 continuing, and although the iPhone 16 has not been released yet, it is not expected to have significant upgrades to drive consumer upgrades.