The production capacity explosion of the GW-class perovskite, what opportunities are there on the industrial chain?

As the efficiency of crystalline silicon cells approaches the theoretical limit, perovskite is becoming the next disruptor in the photovoltaic market. Guosheng analyst Yang Runsi made it clear in the latest report that 2025 will be the year of mass production for perovskite GW-level cells. With the deployment of GW-level production lines by Ren Shi Guang Neng, Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co. Ltd, CNPE and others, the next two years will witness an explosive growth in production capacity. Guosheng predicts that global production capacity will exceed 5GW in 2027 and surpass 30GW by 2030. Industry iteration is happening. Currently, the domestic laboratory efficiency of single-junction perovskite cells has reached 27.3%, and tandem cells have exceeded 35.0%, surpassing the theoretical limit of 27.9% for crystalline silicon cells. More importantly, core equipment has achieved 100% localization with stability certified by IEC. Furthermore, cost curves are rapidly declining. The production cost of perovskite modules is currently around 1.2 yuan/W, higher than crystalline silicon modules. However, with localization of equipment, increased capacity utilization, and optimization of material processes, the cost is expected to decrease to 1.0 yuan/W by 2026, approaching the level of crystalline silicon cells. This means that the logic of the photovoltaic industry is shifting from "capacity surplus stock competition" to "incremental explosion through technological iteration". The winners will mainly be those with full-line delivery capabilities, core material suppliers, and component manufacturers with advantages in tandem technology. Technological Singularity: Surpassing crystalline silicon in efficiency, stability is no longer a barrier The core logic of photovoltaics has always been efficiency. Crystalline silicon technology has hit a ceiling, while perovskite is opening up new possibilities. Leading efficiency gap: The highest laboratory efficiency of single-junction perovskite cells is 27.3%, approaching that of crystalline silicon. More disruptive is the perovskite-silicon tandem cell, with a laboratory efficiency of up to 35.0%, far exceeding the theoretical limit of 27.9% for crystalline silicon cells. From an industry perspective: Jinko Solar's N-type TOPCon/perovskite tandem cell conversion efficiency has exceeded 34.76%; Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology's small-area perovskite-TOPCon tandem cell conversion efficiency has exceeded 33.53%; Trina Solar Co., Ltd.'s 3.1m large-area perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem module has a power output of 886W, setting a record, with small-size cell efficiency exceeding 35%; LONGi Green Energy Technology's two-sided tandem cell efficiency has been certified by NREL at 34.85%, while Tongwei Co., Ltd's small-size perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem cell research efficiency has reached 34.78%. More importantly, the stability issue, once seen as the Achilles' heel, has been substantially addressed. Adani Solar has become the world's first enterprise to pass the threefold IEC aging test by TV Rheinland Germany (covering extreme environments such as humidity and thermal cycling). Companies like BOE and Jolywood have also completed dual IEC certifications. Field data shows that the degradation rate in the first year is controlled at 3.2%-4.5%, and the electricity generation in low-light conditions is 12%-18% higher than crystalline silicon. Starting from 2025, the year of GW-level production, production capacity will explode in the next two years Guosheng's data shows that the release of production capacity by leading companies is accelerating, with the industry transitioning from pilot lines to production lines Production timeline: 2025 (first year): Jolywood's global first GW-level production line will start running in February; Adani Solar's GW-level production line will start in June; and Qunfeng Optoelectronics' 1GW line is expected to be operational in the second half of the year. 2026-2027 (explosion period): Ren Shi Guang Neng, Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co. Ltd, CNPE and others will successively launch GW-level production lines. Long-term forecast: Global production capacity is expected to exceed 5GW by 2027 and surpass 30GW by 2030. Capital expenditure: The total investment of the seven GW-level production lines disclosed so far is 8.51 billion yuan. As technology matures, the investment per GW has rapidly decreased from 1.5 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 1 billion yuan in mid-2025, further accelerating capacity expansion. Industry chain support: Accelerating localization of equipment and materials It is worth noting that core perovskite equipment is fully domestically controllable without any bottleneck. The industry has achieved 100% localization of PVD, coating, laser, and packaging equipment. Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation has won the bid for a perovskite cell production line for 300mmx300mm size, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies has won the industry's first order for a perovskite/silicon heterojunction tandem cell line, J.S. Corrugating Machinery has completed the delivery of a perovskite single-junction and tandem CECEP Solar Energy cell line to customers in the United States. Key material localization has also made progress. Shandong Jinjing Science & Technology Stock's self-developed TCO conducting film glass has increased the localization rate of perovskite core materials to over 95% with an annual capacity of 45 million square meters, which has been applied in companies like Jolywood, Adani Solar, Qunfeng Optoelectronics, etc. Valiant Co., Ltd's perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cell material products have been applied in hole transport layers, perovskite layers, and electron transport layers in multiple customer projects. The packaging material supply chain is also improving. Hangzhou First Applied Material's POE film and butyl rubber are particularly suitable for packaging and protection of perovskite cells. Guangzhou Lushan New Materials' perovskite-specific thermoplastic POE film has been tested by leading companies like Adani Solar, Qunfeng Optoelectronics, BOE, Ren Shi Guang Neng, and Jolywood, with good results, and has started bulk trial production with some customers. Longhua Technology Group's IZO target materials are mainly used in perovskite cell research and testing lines. Economic cost analysis: Approaching 1 yuan/W, material cost accounts for over 70% Photovoltaics is a cost game. Although perovskite currently has a slightly higher cost than crystalline silicon, the cost reduction path is clear, and the structure is completely different. The current investment for a single GW perovskite production line is around 1 billion yuan. According to Guosheng's research, equipment investment accounts for 65-70% of the GW-level line, about 6-7 billion yuan, while auxiliary and power systems require an investment of 1.5-2 billion yuan. Based on a 150MW production line, the cost of a 0.72m single-junction perovskite module is around 1.2 yuan/W, higher than current crystalline silicon levels. Unlike crystalline silicon, the material cost of perovskite modules accounts for as much as 76% (glass 29%, packaging materials 25%, functional layer materials 22%). Labor and depreciation make up a tiny percentage, indicating that with material localization and scale, cost reduction will be very rapid. Guosheng predicts that with the release of GW-level production capacity and the integration upgrade of equipment (such as three-in-one coating equipment), module unit costs are expected to drop to 1.0 yuan/W by 2026. By then, perovskite will have direct cost competitiveness with crystalline silicon.