"Golden opportunity" is here! Gold prices continue to hit new highs, Jefferies recommends 2 stocks.

date
06/03/2024
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GMT Eight
During the historical high of gold prices, "buying on dips" Gold stocks, which have been severely hit, may be a good choice. Jefferies analyst Matt Murphy described the stock discounts in the North American gold mining industry as a "golden opportunity." Murphy started to have a positive view on the gold mining industry. He stated that despite high real interest rates and continuous decline in inflation, the buying support from major central banks could support gold prices, and global economic slowdown could also be the next driving force. At the same time, gold stocks have deviated from record gold prices and are at discount levels. Murphy believes that miners' profit margins will soon recover, driving growth in free cash flow (FCF). This analyst is optimistic about two severely hit gold stocks: Newmont Mining (NEM.US) Newmont Mining, headquartered in Colorado, is one of the world's leading gold producers. The company has a market value of $36 billion and has active mining and exploration projects worldwide. In addition to gold, Newmont Mining also produces silver, copper, zinc, and lead. As of the end of 2023, Newmont Mining's total gold reserves totaled 135.9 million ounces, a significant increase from 96.1 million ounces at the end of 2022. Newmont Mining also has particularly large reserves of silver and copper, with silver reserves of up to 600 million ounces and copper reserves of 30 billion pounds. In November last year, Newmont Mining completed the acquisition of Newcrest Mining, positioning itself as a leading global gold producer. The acquisition cost approximately $16.8 billion. The mining company announced in February this year that it would streamline operations by selling off multiple non-core assets. This asset divestiture will enable the company to focus on its "core" mining business. The latest financial report shows that Newmont Mining had fourth-quarter revenue of $4 billion in 2023, a 24% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations by about $613 million; non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.50, exceeding market expectations by $0.06. However, Newmont Mining's stock price still faces resistance, falling by about 19% so far this year. Murphy is optimistic about Newmont Mining. He stated that the company has the ability to streamline operations, build through acquisitions, and increase production, all of which bode well for future growth prospects. Murphy said, "As an industry leader, it often commands a premium, so it is surprising to see Newmont Mining's stock price fall so sharply." Last year was a challenging year for Newmont Mining, with strikes at Penasquito and suspension of Yanacocha Sulfides, among others. Newmont Mining completed two major gold deals in the past five years, including the integration of Goldcorp and Newcrest. "This diluted the number of shares and affected returns, but we believe the core investment portfolio is impressive and will achieve good growth in the coming years," Murphy said. Murphy gives Newmont Mining a "buy" rating with a target price of $38, indicating a potential 14% increase within a year. Overall, Wall Street analysts give Newmont Mining a "moderate buy" rating with an average target price of $44.05. B2Gold (BTG.US) B2Gold, headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, controls a series of mines and exploration projects worldwide. B2Gold has high gold production, reaching 1,061,060 ounces in 2023. In addition to good production data, the company is also focused on expanding its production areas. At the end of January, B2Gold announced positive drilling results at the Otjikoto mine in Namibia. At the end of last year, B2Gold announced positive results in exploration activities in Canada. Further drilling at the Goose project discovered high-grade ore deposits and pushed the company to further develop plans for the Goose mining operation. The financial report shows that B2Gold's fourth-quarter gold production was 288,665 ounces, accounting for over 27% of the total annual production. Gold revenue for the quarter was close to $512 million, a 13% year-on-year decrease, in line with expectations. However, non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.07, below expectations. B2Gold's stock price has recently experienced significant fluctuations, falling by 16% so far this year. Murphy stated, "B2Gold has lagged behind the gold mining index for three consecutive years, and the duration of its investment portfolio remains challenging, with insufficient mine life at Otjikoto and uncertainties at the Fekola project. Recently, the increased capital expenditure at the Goose project and other inflationary pressures have further weakened the stock. 2024 remains a challenging year, as expenditures continue at the Goose project and Fekola, and permit delays could affect production at Fekola." Although delivery at Goose still faces risks, Murphy believes that the current pricing of the stock is quite attractive. He said, "We believe that as the market becomes more satisfied with the delivery of Goose, B2Gold may see positive changes later in 2024." Murphy gives B2Gold a "buy" rating with a target price of $3.50, implying a potential 33% increase within a year. Overall, Wall Street analysts give B2Gold a "strong buy" rating with an average target price of $4.16.

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