Inter-Trade: The global manufacturing PMI for February was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

On March 6, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI for February 2024 was 49.1%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous month. However, it has remained stable above 49% for two consecutive months, higher than the average level of 47.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, indicating that the global manufacturing industry is still recovering steadily, with a better recovery level than in the fourth quarter of last year. By region, although the PMI of Asian manufacturing industries decreased from the previous month, it remained above 50%; the PMI of African and European manufacturing industries increased from the previous month, while the PMI of American manufacturing industries decreased, all remaining below 50%. From the changes in the index, the global economic situation has been relatively stable in the first two months of the year, slightly better than in the fourth quarter of last year, but the low growth pattern has not changed. Major institutions around the world generally expect global economic growth to remain around 3% in 2024. Looking at global trade, if geopolitical conflicts do not further escalate, global trade growth in 2024 may be slightly higher than the global economic growth rate and better than the same period last year. The reasons for the continued low growth of the global economy are as follows: geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global supply chains and hinder global trade to some extent; trade frictions still have an impact on the global economy, with the Global Trade Friction Index released by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export showing a high level of 260 in December 2023; slow global demand growth leads to insufficient endogenous economic momentum, which is the main reason for the slow growth of the global economy. Countries around the world should set aside their differences, reduce external interference on the global economy, strengthen cooperation, enhance the resilience of global supply chains and industrial chains, focus on industrial upgrading and innovation-driven development as the main cooperation direction, jointly enhance the endogenous economic momentum of global economic growth, and break free from the trend of slow global economic growth to promote global economic recovery. European manufacturing continues to recover at a low level, with PMI rising for two consecutive months In February 2024, the PMI for European manufacturing was 48%, a 0.8 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking a two-month consecutive increase and showing signs of continuous recovery, although European manufacturing remains at a relatively low level. Looking at major countries, the manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Spain, while still at relatively low levels, all saw consecutive increases over the past two months; Germany, however, did not continue the trend of accelerated recovery from the previous month, with a significant decrease in manufacturing PMI. Taking into account the changes in the index, European manufacturing has maintained a low-level recovery in the first two months of the year, but the stability of the recovery still needs to be observed. The stability of the German economy, as the locomotive of the European economy, is poor, and its impact on the European economy cannot be ignored. From the perspective of PMI changes, Germany has the lowest manufacturing PMI among European countries with this data. Recently, the German government revised its forecast for economic growth in 2024 from 1.3% to 0.2%. Under the influence of rate hikes and continued weak demand, the European Union has also lowered its economic expectations for the EU and the euro area, revising the EU's economic growth rate from 1.3% to 0.9% and the euro area's economic growth rate from 1.2% to 0.8%. According to various statements from the European Central Bank, its focus remains on inflation pressure rather than economic recovery. Despite the year-on-year increase of 2.6% in the CPI announced by Eurostat in February, lower than the 2.8% in January, but because it was lower than the expected 2.5% and higher than the target of 2%, the European Central Bank considered it one of the reasons for not rushing to cut interest rates. With the market generally expecting the eurozone to begin cutting rates in June for the first time, the European economy is expected to continue its trend of low-level volatility in the first half of the year. African manufacturing shows some recovery, with PMI approaching 50% In February 2024, the PMI for African manufacturing was 49.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight acceleration in the growth of African manufacturing compared to the previous month. Looking at major countries, South Africa's manufacturing has shown significant recovery compared to the previous month, with a manufacturing PMI exceeding 51%, being a major driving force for the recovery of African manufacturing; Nigeria's manufacturing growth has slowed significantly compared to the previous month, with a noticeable decrease in the manufacturing PMI, but still above 51%. Looking at the trend of African manufacturing PMI over the past year, African manufacturing as a whole has maintained a continuous recovery trend, but the stability of the recovery is not satisfactory. External impacts of geopolitical conflicts and internal political instability in some African countries are the main reasons for the lack of stability in the recovery of the African economy. However, the momentum for African economic recovery is still there. A recent report by the African Development Bank predicts that the average real GDP growth rate for the African continent in 2024 will be 3.8%. In addition to maintaining regional political stability, to continue promoting key infrastructure upgrades, accelerating the industrialization process in Africa, improving the business environment, promoting diversified development, and enhancing economic recovery resilience are all essential steps for African economies to continue on the path to recovery. The recovery momentum of American manufacturing weakens, with a decrease in PMI from the previous month In February 2024, the PMI for American manufacturing was 48.6%, a 1 percentage point decrease from the previous month, ending a two-month consecutive increase in month-on-month comparisons and indicating a weakening in the recovery momentum of American manufacturing. Data from major countries shows that the PMI of the United States has decreased from the previous month, while Brazil, Canada, and Mexico have seen varying degrees of increase in their manufacturing PMI. According to the ISM report, in February 2024, the recovery momentum of American manufacturing has weakened, with a manufacturing PMI of 47.8%, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month. Sub-index changes indicate that production and market demand activities in American manufacturing have decreased to varying degrees from the previous month, with both production and new order indexes falling below 50%. Data changes in the first two months indicate that the stability of the recovery in American manufacturing still needs to be observed. Some related data from the United States indirectly reflect the pressure on the economic recovery. Firstly, the US Department of Commerce revised down the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 to an annual rate of 3.2%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the initial estimate; secondly, the Consumer Confidence Index released by the World Federation of Large Enterprises dropped from 110.9 in January to 106.7, the first decline in nearly 4 months; thirdly, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America announced that the mortgage application index for home purchases as of February 23, 2024, had dropped to 127.6, lower than the 1The lowest level since January, the momentum of the real estate market's recovery has also weakened. From a monetary policy perspective, the market generally expects a low probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve before June, which also means that support for the recovery of the US economy in the first half of the year is limited at the policy level.The trend of Asian manufacturing industry is relatively stable, with the PMI staying above 50% In February 2024, the PMI of Asian manufacturing industry was 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, maintaining above 50% for two consecutive months, reflecting a stable growth trend in the Asian manufacturing industry. Looking at the main countries, the PMI of Chinese manufacturing industry has remained stable above 49% for two consecutive months; the PMI of Indian manufacturing industry has remained stable above 56% for two consecutive months; among ASEAN countries, except for Thailand, whose PMI saw a relatively large decline last month, the PMI trends of other countries remained relatively stable with small fluctuations. The trend of Asian manufacturing PMI shows that the stability of the Asian manufacturing industry is better than that of Europe, America, and Africa. The continued advancement of RCEP is conducive to enhancing the level of economic integration in Asia, thereby ensuring the stability of the Asian economy. The Asian Development Bank released the "2024 Report on Asian Economic Integration," showing that the level of integration in the Asia-Pacific region in regional value chains and personnel and social integration is now comparable to that of the European Union. The stable recovery of the Chinese and Indian economies remains an important driving force for the stability of the Asian economy. In particular, China's support for the Asian and global economies remains very evident. According to data from the Wilson Center, China is still the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries and regions including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. In addition, ASEAN is also an important force for stable economic growth in Asia, with major countries maintaining steady growth. The Asian Development Bank predicts that the ASEAN economy will grow by 5% in 2024. This article is excerpted from the official website of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, edited by GMTEight: Wang Jie.