Outlook on US stocks | Three major stock index futures all fall, multiple heavyweight data coming this week.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market on March 4 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indices fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures fell by 0.26%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.16%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.11%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.14%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.48%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.00%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.18%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 0.31% to $79.72 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.19% to $83.39 per barrel. Market News This week, a series of heavyweight data will be released successively, and Powell may continue to be "hawkish" in Congress. One of the key data points this week is the US February non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday. The market expects the February non-farm payroll to drop from 353,000 in January to 200,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7% and the year-on-year increase in average hourly wages dropping slightly to 4.4%. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House committee on Wednesday and the Senate group on Thursday. The market expects Powell to emphasize a cautious approach to rate cuts, especially after the latest inflation data showed persistent price pressures. The Fed will also release the Beige Book early Thursday. The US February ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be released on Tuesday. Known as the "mini non-farm payroll," the US February ADP employment change and the January JOLTS job openings will be released on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs: The recent rebound in US stocks led by tech stocks is different from past bubbles. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin stated in a report that the S&P 500 index has reached record highs driven by a few strong tech stocks, which is different from past bubbles. He stated that stocks with a ratio of enterprise value to sales exceeding 10 times account for 24% of the total market capitalization of US stocks, compared to 28% in 2021 and 35% during the tech bubble period. However, he added that the breadth of "extreme valuations" is much smaller, with the number of stocks trading at these multiples significantly lower than the peak in 2021. He said, "This time is different. Unlike the widespread 'growth at all costs' of 2021, investors are now mostly paying high valuations for the largest growth stocks in the S&P 500. We believe that the valuations of the 'big seven' stocks are currently supported by their fundamentals." US stocks are too crazy! Bank of America becomes the largest bull, bullish on S&P 500 reaching 5400 by the end of the year. Savita Subramanian, head of stock strategy for Bank of America, is the latest stock strategist to raise the target for the S&P 500 index to the highest level on Wall Street. She now expects the index to reach 5400 by the end of the year, which means the index will rise by about 5% compared to last Friday's close, with her previous target being 5000. She said that various indicators are flashing bullish signals, indicating that future profit growth will be stronger and profit margin elasticity is "surprising." It is reported that Bank of America's target for the S&P 500 index of 5400 by 2024 is now one of the most bullish targets on Wall Street. OPEC+ extends oil production cuts to mid-year, Russia plans to increase production cuts. According to a joint statement by member countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia, OPEC+ will extend its oil supply reduction policy until the middle of this year to avoid global oil oversupply and continue to support crude benchmark prices through production cuts. It is understood that the nominal production cap of the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is about 2 million barrels per day, and will continue until the end of June. Saudi Arabia occupies half of the promised production reduction scale - daily voluntary production cuts of 1 million barrels implemented by Saudi Arabia since July 2023 will be extended until the end of June this year. Russia has committed to strengthening its role as an energy-exporting country by focusing more on the scale of production cuts rather than exports, and is expected to gradually increase the scale of production cuts. Yields are poised to rise, institutions eyeing the "bottoming out point" for US bonds: 4.5%. The performance of the US economy at the beginning of 2024 has generally exceeded expectations, prompting investors to significantly reduce bets on Fed rate cuts and causing losses for investors who were bullish on bonds at the beginning of the year. However, for those who are confident that the eventual trajectory of interest rates is downwards, the time may be ripe to increase exposure to the world's largest bond market. Managers from The Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), T.Rowe Price, DWS Investment Management Americas, and Mellon Wealth Management are all part of this camp. They believe that if the yields on 5-year to 10-year US Treasury bonds continue to surge to 4.5%, it will be an extremely attractive buying opportunity. Stock News Weak product demand and lackluster stock prices lead Apple (AAPL.US) to be removed from Goldman Sachs' best buy list. Since June last year, Apple has consistently been on Goldman's best buy list of 20-25 stocks. However, since joining the list, Apple's stock price has barely changed, while the S&P 500 index has risen by nearly 22%. Goldman Sachs stated that the list is reviewed monthly, and if a stock is "no longer the top choice for investing," it will be removed. The market is currently concerned that Apple is losing market share in China, and there are concerns about the sustainability of demand for its Vision Pro mixed reality headset and iPhone 15. However, Goldman analyst Michael Ng continues to maintain a buy rating on Apple Inc., as he believes that "market concerns about slowing revenue growth overshadow the strength of Apple's ecosystem and the related sustainability and revenue visibility." Investor consortium rumored to raise bid for Macy's (M.US) acquisition to $6.6 billion. After Macy's rejected a previous acquisition proposal citing a low bid, an investor consortium has reportedly raised the acquisition offer by about $1 billion. Sources say that Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital M.Management is now proposing to acquire the shares of Macy's that they do not already own at a price of $24 per share (totaling $6.6 billion). Last December, the consortium had offered a price of $21 per share. The new offer is 33% higher than Macy's closing price last Friday. As of the time of writing, Macy's stock in pre-market trading on Monday is up over 15%.Tesla's (TSLA.US) shipment volume in China has dropped to the lowest level in over a year. Due to sluggish sales during the Spring Festival and renewed price competition in the electric vehicle market, Tesla's shipment volume at the Shanghai factory in February dropped to the lowest level in over a year, at 60,365 units. This is the lowest number since December 2022, with a month-on-month decrease of nearly 16%. The year-on-year decline is even greater, at 19%. Sohu (SOHU.US) reported revenue of $601 million in 2023 and announced an increase in the stock repurchase amount to a maximum of $1.50 billion. The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2023, Sohu's total revenue was $141 million. Brand advertising revenue was $20 million, and online game revenue was $115 million in 2023. For the full year of 2023, Sohu's total revenue was $601 million. Brand advertising revenue was $89 million, and online game revenue was $480 million. At the same time, Sohu's board of directors announced an increase in the stock repurchase plan amount from a maximum of $80 million to a maximum of $1.50 billion. Earnings forecasts Pre-market on Tuesday: Target (TGT.US), Nio (NIO.US)