Nation Consultancy: It is expected that the demand for LED light sources and fixtures for secondary replacement will reach as high as 5.8 billion units in 2024.

According to the latest estimation from TrendForce, approximately 5.8 billion LED light sources and fixtures will reach their maximum lifespan and retire by 2024, leading to a significant demand for secondary replacements, helping to reverse the decline in the LED lighting market and driving the overall LED lighting demand to reach 13.4 billion units. In 2023, around 70% of the globally used fixtures already use LED as the light source, making the scenarios where traditional fixtures can be replaced by LED increasingly limited. Only in some special scenarios are there other non-LED lighting fixtures still present. The marginal cost of replacing LED lighting with non-LED lighting continues to rise, and the process of the first replacement may have already been completed. Despite a decline in the shipment volume of LED lighting products in 2023, the total amount has not decreased sharply. TrendForce believes that this is mainly because the demand for secondary replacements has followed the demand for the first replacements, becoming a key driver supporting the LED lighting market. The peak of demand for secondary replacements in LED lighting is expected to be reached between 2025 and 2028. Generally, the expected lifespan of LED is around 25,000 to 40,000 hours, compared to actual usage time of 7 to 10 years. According to TrendForce, LED fixtures that entered service between 2014 and 2016 started reaching their maximum lifespan in 2023, driving the percentage of demand for secondary replacements to increase year by year. This is expected to be the main driver of growth in the lighting market in the next five years. By 2025, the demand for secondary replacements will surpass that of the first replacements and new installations, becoming the key force in the LED lighting market; by 2028, approximately 78% of the LED lighting demand will come from secondary replacements. TrendForce points out that although the demand for secondary replacements in LED lighting is significant, there are still challenges in its actual implementation. Firstly, there is a lack of awareness among household users about the need for replacement, including concepts like health lighting and environmental consciousness, with some users adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Secondly, some countries have insufficient knowledge about lighting science and common light environment issues, failing to fully realize the commercial and artistic value brought by lighting technology. Finally, there is a mix of good and bad market products, as consumers still prioritize price over product quality. As the lighting market gradually enters a stable phase of periodic development to attract consumer repurchase intentions, the importance of brands is highlighted.