The Unity Fund of Hong Kong: After the complete withdrawal of cooling measures, the future trend of the Hong Kong property market will also depend on factors such as interest rate trends.
29/02/2024
GMT Eight
On February 28, Vice President of the Unity Hong Kong Fund, Ye Wenqi, stated that the Hong Kong SAR government's announcement of the "withdrawal of cooling measures" in the "Budget" will help stimulate real estate transactions in Hong Kong, increase the liquidity of the property market, and have a positive impact on the long-term healthy development of the property market. However, Ye Wenqi also pointed out that the "cooling measures" are a series of measures implemented by the Hong Kong SAR government to suppress an overheated property market and prevent a bubble, aiming to increase buyers' costs and risks to reduce speculative demand. Therefore, the "cooling measures" can only adjust the emotions and expectations of the property market to a certain extent, but cannot completely control the fluctuations of the property market. After the complete withdrawal of cooling measures, the trend of the property market will still depend on factors such as interest rate trends, economic environment, supply volume, and external environment.
In terms of land supply, the Budget indicates that potential land supply for the fiscal year 2024/25 can accommodate approximately 15,000 private residential units, which is about 14% higher than the estimated annual demand of 13,200 units in the "Long-term Housing Strategy." However, Ye Wenqi pointed out that there is a gap between actual successful land supply and potential land supply in the past. Apart from the fact that the Hong Kong SAR government may not necessarily release all the land for sale listed on the land sale schedule within the year, land may also go unsold due to market conditions. Especially in the face of the recent downturn in the market sentiment, several pieces of land have gone unsold last year. Therefore, it is hoped that the Hong Kong SAR government can adjust its land release strategy in a timely manner to reduce the occurrence of unsold land. Ye Wenqi added that since the Hong Kong SAR government does not blindly approve land sales at "bottom price" in order to catch up with supply, the final land supply figures will still depend on market conditions.
Furthermore, Ye Wenqi was pleased to see that the Hong Kong SAR government proposed to adjust the development progress of infrastructure projects in accordance with their priorities. It is hoped that the Hong Kong SAR government can concentrate resources on efficient land investment and make appropriate development plans for the northern metropolitan areas according to its capabilities. Specifically, Ye Wenqi suggested that the construction of stations in Ko Tong North/Fanling North and Hung Shui Kiu New Development Area should be completed first; as for the development of the Nantien Technology City, the Hong Kong SAR government should first complete the development of the River Trade Area, Lok Ma Chau Control Point, and the development of the Nantien City Center, allowing the scale of the Nantien Technology City to gradually take shape before considering the development of the remaining phases.