Preview of US stocks | All three major stock index futures fell together, while Bitcoin continued to surge.

1. Before the US stock market on February 28 (Wednesday) , the futures of the three major US stock indexes all fell. As of the time of writing, the Dow futures fell by 0.33%, the S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.31%, and the Nasdaq futures fell by 0.40%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose by 0.18%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.75%, the France CAC 40 index fell by 0.05%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.10%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 1.12%, to $77.99 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 1.05%, to $81.79 per barrel. Market News Traders finally "admit defeat": betting that the Fed will not cut interest rates more than three times this year. Bond traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by no more than 75 basis points this year, consistent with the most likely outcome hinted at by Fed policy makers. Forward contracts are repriced at higher interest rate levels, with the December contract rate currently at 4.58%, just 75 basis points lower than the effective federal funds rate of 5.33%. Since July last year, the Fed's target rate has been between 5.25% and 5.5%. The market's implied expectations for the Fed's next move have been converging towards the median forecast made by decision-makers in December last year. However, even this level of interest rate cut raises doubts, with some investors considering the possibility of further rate hikes. Is the rally in US stocks about to fade? JP Morgan sounds the alarm: fears of a return to 1970s-style stagflation. The US stock market reached another historic high last week, but JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic warned that the risk of the US economy returning to a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s increases, suggesting that this rally may not last long. In an analysis report to clients, the bank's chief market strategist warned that the economy may deviate from the "Goldilocks" scenario, an economy that neither overheats nor overcools, and instead enter a period of stagflation similar to what was experienced in the 70s. This inflation scenario ravaged the US economy in the 70s and early 80s, when soaring oil prices, rising unemployment rates, and loose monetary policy pushed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 14.8% in 1980, prompting Fed decision-makers to raise rates to near 20% that year. Goldman Sachs CEO: there is more uncertainty about the expectation of a soft landing in the US. Goldman Sachs Group CEO David Solomon said that slowing consumer spending is causing doubts about the expectations that the US economy will avoid a recession. Solomon said at a UBS Group conference on Tuesday, "The world seems to be prepared for a soft landing. The market seems to think the certainty of a soft landing is very high. But personally, I think there is more uncertainty." Solomon said that business leaders have told him that due to persistently high prices, "moonlighting" consumer behavior has begun to decline. He said, "Our operations are still doing well, but the uncertainty is higher than the market currently believes." In 2022 and 2023, as the Fed tries to curb surging inflation, interest rates are rising at the fastest pace in forty years. Crazy money pouring in! Boosted by a surge in Bitcoin, the trading volume of the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF continues to exceed $1.3 billion. On Tuesday, driven by Bitcoin breaking through $57,000, the daily trading volume of the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceeded $1.3 billion for the second consecutive day. On Wednesday, Bitcoin continued to break through $59,000, reaching new highs since December 2021. Individual Stock News Vipshop (VIPS.US) Q4 total net revenue increased by 9.2% year-on-year, net profit increased by 33% year-on-year. Vipshop's Q4 total net revenue was 34.674 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year compared to 31.758 billion yuan in the same period last year; net profit was 2.98 billion yuan, an increase of 33% year-on-year compared to 2.24 billion yuan in the same period last year; diluted earnings per ADS were 5.35 yuan, compared to 3.66 yuan in the same period last year. The number of active customers in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, from 47.5 million in the same period last year to 48.5 million. GMV in the fourth quarter increased by 21.9% year-on-year, from 54.4 billion yuan in the same period last year to 66.4 billion yuan. HUTCHMED (HCM, US) releases annual results with a net income of $101 million, turning losses into profits year-on-year. HUTCHMED released its annual financial results as of December 31, 2023, with total revenue of $838 million, an increase of 96.52% year-on-year; HUTCHMED's attributable net income was $101 million, compared to a shareholder-loss of $361 million in the same period last year, turning losses into profits year-on-year; basic earnings per share were $0.12. The increase in revenue is attributed to collaboration with Takeda, strong commercialization progress in China, and growth in third-party distribution. The oncology/immunology business in 2023 saw comprehensive revenue growth of 223% (calculated at fixed exchange rates) to $528.6 million, close to the financial guidance upper limit, including the confirmation of $280 million received from Takeda as an upfront payment. The comprehensive revenue financial guidance for the oncology/immunology business in 2024 is $300 million to $400 million, benefiting from sales of oncology products that have already been launched and a target growth of 30% to 50% in royalties. Daqo New Energy (DQ.US) Q4 revenue fell by 44.8% year-on-year. Daqo New Energy's Q4 revenue was $477 million, compared to $864 million in the same period last year, a decrease of 44.8%; net profit attributable to the company's shareholders was $44.9 million, compared to $333 million in the same period last year; earnings per ADS were $0.64, compared to $4.26 in the same period last year. Adjusted net profit attributable to the company's shareholders was $66 million, compared to $363 million in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per ADS were $0.94, compared to $4.65 in the same period last year. iQIYI (IQ.US) Q4 and full-year financial report: Achieves best annual performance, all core financial indicators reach new highs. iQIYI's total revenue for the full year was 31.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%; Non-GAAP operating profit was 3.6 billion yuan.Year-on-year growth rate of 68%; Non-GAAP net profit of 2.8 billion yuan, an increase of 121% year-on-year. Among them, the fourth quarter revenue was 7.7 billion yuan, with Non-GAAP operating profit of 928 million yuan. iQiyi's membership service revenue in 2023 was 20.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15% year-on-year. The growth in membership service revenue was mainly due to the increase in ARM and daily average subscription member numbers, as well as continuous optimization of operations that improved member experience and monetization capabilities. In the fourth quarter, ARM reached a historic high of 15.98 yuan, a 13% increase from 14.17 yuan in the same period of 2022. In the fourth quarter, iQiyi's daily average subscription member number was 100.3 million. As of December 31, 2023, the subscription member number was 101.1 million.Baidu (BIDU.US) reported full-year results, with a net profit attributable to Baidu of 20.315 billion yuan, a 169% increase year-on-year. In the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, the group achieved a total revenue of 34.951 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year; net profit attributable to Baidu was 2.599 billion yuan, a 48% decrease year-on-year; diluted earnings per American depositary share were 6.77 yuan. For the full year of 2023, the group achieved a total revenue of 134.598 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year; net profit attributable to Baidu was 20.315 billion yuan, a 169% increase year-on-year; diluted earnings per American depositary share were 55.08 yuan. By the end of 2023, Baidu's PaddlePaddle platform had attracted 10.7 million developers and served 235,000 enterprises and institutions. By the end of 2023, developers had created 860,000 models on PaddlePaddle. Baidu's self-driving car service, Luobokuaipao, provided 839,000 rides in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 49% increase year-on-year. eBay (EBAY.US) exceeded expectations in Q4 performance and profit guidance, expanding its stock repurchase program. eBay's Q4 revenue was $2.56 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, better than the market's expected $2.51 billion; earnings per share were $1.07, also better than the market's expected $1.03. The total merchandise volume was $18.6 billion, a 2% increase year-on-year, exceeding the market's expected $18.2 billion. Active buyers were 132 million, a 2% decrease from the previous year. Fourth-quarter advertising revenue was $393 million, surpassing the market's expected $375 million, helping eBay increase profit despite losing customers. The company also added $2 billion to its existing stock repurchase program, increasing the authorized repurchase amount to $3.4 billion. The strong holiday quarter performance has given investors new hopes that the company can boost profits significantly after massive layoffs. Beyond Meat (BYND.US) exceeded expectations in Q4 net revenue, planning multiple measures to support profit growth. Beyond Meat's Q4 net revenue decreased by 7.8% to $73.679 million, as sales growth was offset by a decrease in revenue per pound, but it was better than the average analyst expectation of $66.8 million. Net loss was $155 million, compared to a net loss of $66.9 million in the same period last year; earnings per share was -$2.40, compared to the analyst's average expected loss per share of -$0.89, and $1.05 per share in the same period last year. Beyond Meat expects full-year net revenue in 2024 to be between $315 million and $345 million, slightly lower than the average analyst expectation of $344 million; the full-year gross margin is expected to remain around 15%, with the second half of the year expected to perform better than the first half; the full-year operating expenses are expected to be between $170 million and $190 million, with expenses in the first half of the year relatively higher. With the plan to make cars falling through, Apple's "AI dream" becomes more urgent. Previously, there were reports that Apple (AAPL.US) would cancel its electric car project that had been brewing for nearly a decade. Apple's abandonment of the self-driving car plan meant giving up potential billions in revenue and the dream of selling what an executive called the "ultimate mobile device." Apple hopes other big projects it's betting on - including generative artificial intelligence (AI) and mixed reality headsets - can make up for this shortfall. On Tuesday, Apple revealed this news internally, shocking nearly 2,000 employees working on the project. It was revealed that the company's executives and board had been holding frantic meetings for months on how to proceed before making this decision. The result is that Apple's future won't depend on selling $100,000 self-driving cars. Instead, it will focus on catching up with competitors in the generative artificial intelligence industry. A catalyst for a trillion-dollar market value? Eli Lilly's "fat-loss drug" may launch in India next year. Eli Lilly's CEO David Ricks stated in a media interview on Wednesday that the company expects to launch its "fat-loss drug" product tirzepatide in the Indian market as early as next year, which has a population of 1.4 billion. When asked if Eli Lilly has an open attitude towards the approval of generic versions of tirzepatide, Ricks said, "As long as it makes sense for the company's development, we are open to any way to reach more patients." The Eli Lilly weight loss drug, which primarily contains tirzepatide, is sold in the US market under the Mounjaro brand for diabetes treatment and the Zepbound brand for weight loss. Upcoming important economic data and events: 21:30 Beijing time: US Q4 actual GDP annualized quarterly rate revision (%), US Q4 Core PCE Price Index annualized quarterly rate revision (%), US January Wholesale Inventories monthly initial value (%). 23:30 Beijing time: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Changes (10,000 barrels) for the week ending February 23. 01:00 the next day Beijing time: 2024 FOMC voter, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic participate in fireside chat. 01:15 the next day Beijing time: 2025 FOMC voters, and Boston Fed President Collins participate in fireside chat. 01:45 the next day Beijing time: FOMC permanent voter, and New York Fed President Williams participate in the Economic Briefing hosted by the Long Island Association. Earnings forecasts: Thursday morning: Salesforce (CRM.US), HP (HPQ.US), C3.ai (AI.US), Snowflake (SNOW.US) Thursday before the market opens: NetEase (NTES.US), Youdao (DAO.US), Dingdong Maicai (DDL.US), Best Buy (BBY.US)