CBRE: It is expected that there will be over 1000 transactions of first-hand properties per month in the second quarter. Hong Kong property prices are expected to stabilize in the short term and stop falling.

"According to CBRE, many developers are expecting the easing of property cooling measures and are preparing to launch new projects in 2024 after the Lunar New Year to meet the pent-up market demand. Currently, developers are looking to sell remaining units, with over 1,000 first-hand sales expected per month in the second quarter of 2024. After nine consecutive months of decline, property prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. Regarding the announcement of the "Withdrawal of Stamp Duty" in the Budget, Marcos Chan, Head of Research, CBRE Hong Kong, pointed out that the Hong Kong government has responded to market demands by eliminating all market tightening measures that have been in place for 13 years. This move is in line with market expectations. The removal of these measures will allow companies and non-permanent residents of Hong Kong to purchase residential properties without the need to pay additional stamp duty. Chan expects that these positive measures may create a favorable momentum in the market. Despite high interest rates remaining a barrier to many commercial investment activities, a gradual recovery in trading activity is expected. The key to the sustainability of the real estate investment market lies in the rebound of rents and improvements in overall vacancy rates. According to the latest measures from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, increasing the loan-to-value ratio for commercial real estate may promote more refinancing activities and alleviate the pressure to sell at low prices. In terms of land sale plans for 2024-25, the Hong Kong government is expected to provide the lowest housing supply of 15,000 residential units since the launch of land sale plans in 2011. The second lowest was in the 2019-20 land sale plan, which provided 15,500 residential units. Kelvin Ko, Senior Director of Valuation and Advisory Services, CBRE Hong Kong, stated that the "Withdrawal of Stamp Duty" is expected to have a positive impact on trading volume in the market. This relaxation of stamp duty will encourage more foreign talents, non-local buyers, and investors to enter the market. The suspension of stress testing by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will reduce the cost of entry to buyers, providing a positive stimulus to transaction volumes. In the medium term, property prices in Hong Kong will be determined by interest rate trends and developers' pricing strategies. With the full cancellation of the Special Stamp Duty (SSD) by the Hong Kong government, an increase in second-hand transactions is expected, leading to more residential property owners selling units purchased in recent years at reduced prices, potentially putting pressure on overall property prices in the future."