DAH SING: Hong Kong's export growth in January surpasses expectations, expected to record single-digit growth in exports in 2024.

DAH SING Group Chief Economist and Strategist Kelvin Wan commented on Hong Kong's January import and export performance, stating that both imports and exports in January saw an expanded growth, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase. Hong Kong's overall exports in January rose by 33.6% year-on-year, achieving the largest increase since February 2021, surpassing market expectations of 22.4% and Dah Sing's expectations of 19.4%. DAH SING stated that exports to major regions in January recorded growth, with exports to mainland China increasing from 8.4% to 54.2% year-on-year; exports to the United Arab Emirates also increased significantly from 5% to 34.1%; exports to Vietnam, Taiwan, and India showed accelerated growth, ranging from nearly 30% to over 50%. Additionally, exports to the United States saw a slowdown in year-on-year growth, decreasing from around 25% to about 11%. Due to significantly lower imports in January compared to December, a trade surplus of 36 billion HKD was recorded, marking the first trade surplus since February 2022. DAH SING believes that the significant increase in Hong Kong's exports is mainly due to the lower export levels to mainland China last January, which was impacted by the Lunar New Year holiday. Based on last February's overall export levels being relatively low as well, it is expected that export growth in February this year will maintain a double-digit increase. In the medium term, the impact of the People's Bank of China's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions on the real economy remains to be observed, along with other major central banks potentially maintaining restrictive interest rates for a longer period, which may continue to limit Hong Kong's foreign trade performance. DAH SING estimates that Hong Kong's full-year exports in 2024 may see a single-digit increase.