Hong Kong property market: Only 35.8% of respondents consider buying property in the market. The most optimistic predict that Hong Kong property prices will increase by 3%-5% throughout the year.

At the end of January, Hong Kong Property conducted a quarterly survey on property intentions, collecting 514 valid questionnaires. The survey showed that only about 35.8% of respondents were considering entering the market, reaching a new low since the past 20 quarters. Looking ahead at the performance of the property market this year, if the Hong Kong government fully withdraws cooling measures, and the market expects the US to cut interest rates within the year, the Hong Kong property market is expected to hit bottom by mid-year at the earliest. In an optimistic scenario, Hong Kong property prices are expected to rise by 3 to 5% for the whole year of 2024, and residential transactions are expected to maintain a level of over 60,000. According to Wong Ban-tai, Director of Hong Kong Property's Research Department, approximately 40.7% of the respondents who are considering entering the market have the main purpose of upgrading to a new property, while around 34.8% are looking to downgrade. This is a decrease of about 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The remaining 24.5% of respondents are planning to invest. About 70% of the respondents expect Hong Kong property prices to fall in the next 12 months, with about 26.3% estimating a decrease of 5 to 10%, and another 26.1% believing that prices will drop by more than 10%. Matthieu Ho, Executive Director of the American Chinese Association and Hong Kong Property, stated that the competition among real estate agents in Hong Kong is unprecedented, and transactions continue to shrink. According to data from the Land Registry, the number of registered residential properties has fallen below 50,000 for two consecutive years. The average number of real estate agents has remained at over 40,000 per month for two years, with an average of more than 10 agents competing for a deal each month. He pointed out that the current situation is difficult to sustain with a large number of agents, and the company began restructuring and reallocating resources two or three years ago. During the pandemic, the company has lost about 15% of its staff, but the workforce has been maintained at around 1,000 people in recent years. Currently, the company has around 80 branches and at this stage, there are no plans to reduce staff or branch deployment. The company will focus on maintaining profitability and cautiously controlling operating costs. As the property market decline continues, based on the current economic situation, even if the cooling measures are fully withdrawn, it is difficult for Hong Kong property prices to grow significantly. However, this can have a positive effect on stabilizing market confidence. Hong Kong Property calls on the Hong Kong government to propose measures in the budget that favor the property market and the economy, otherwise property prices may accelerate their decline, leading to a rapid deterioration of negative assets with dire consequences.