BOCOM INTL: Cuts target price of Concerady Pharmaceuticals (09966) to HKD 7.4, maintaining a "Neutral" rating.

BOCOM INTL released a research report stating that it has lowered the target price of Concord Medical Pharmaceuticals (09966) by 17.8%, from HKD 9 to HKD 7.4, with a "neutral" rating, citing the delay in the reading of Phase III data for PDAC and the increasing uncertainty surrounding KN046. Based on the assumption that the success rate of KN046 for pancreatic cancer development has been lowered from 80% to 60%, the peak sales forecast has also been adjusted from CNY 2.5 billion to CNY 2.3 billion, while the sales forecast for other products remains unchanged. The report pointed out that the HR for the Phase III trial of pancreatic cancer has not yet met the criteria for early termination due to superior efficacy, so the trial will continue. According to the company's conference call, the IDMC of KN046-303 held a meeting on November 14 and found no additional safety signals based on the interim analysis as of August 31, and recommended the continuation of OS data collection. The company predicts that the mOS of the test group may be over 12 months, while the control group is less than 10 months, with an HR of around 0.8, which does not meet the criteria for early termination of superior efficacy (HR<0.72), which BOCOM INTL now expects to occur in early next year. In addition, the HER2 deployment is steadily advancing.