Citi: Expects e-commerce industry GMV to grow low-to-mid single digits year-on-year during this year's Double 11; maintains "Buy" ratings on BABA-W (09988) and others.

Citi released a research report stating that this year marks the 18th year that China's major e-commerce platforms have held the Double 11 shopping festival, with mainstream platforms having launched promotions since mid-October. The bank observed that platform strategies are shifting toward direct price cuts and no longer requiring order bundling, which is expected to help curb fake orders and reduce return rates; at the same time, platforms are directing more subsidies toward member groups with higher customer lifetime value, such as 88VIP and JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A Plus, and are driving widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) among merchants to improve operational efficiency. Citi expects that this year platforms will continue not to disclose total GMV, and may focus more on category performance, user engagement, and AI-driven sales metrics. Following industry GMV growth of 4% year-on-year during the 2026 "618" period, the bank estimates that overall industry GMV during this year's Double 11 will grow low-to-mid single digits year-on-year, mainly driven by faster growth at Douyin E-commerce, strong performance in service categories at JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (09618), and intense competition in instant retail. Mainland big data company Syntun estimates that total GMV during this year's Double 11 will grow 14.2% year-on-year to RMB1.7 trillion, of which e-commerce GMV will grow 12.3% year-on-year to RMB1.62 trillion, with Douyin ranking in the top three alongside Tmall and JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A. In terms of platform performance, Tmall, under Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (09988), saw 124 brands exceed RMB100 million in GMV in the first four hours of sales, while another 27,681 brands recorded first-day sales exceeding the same period last year, benefiting from platform merchants' adoption of AI and sharp sales growth in subsidized categories such as digital electronics and smartphones. JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A launched promotions from October 12 with official direct price cuts and no order bundling, achieving double-digit year-on-year growth in transacting users on its launch day. Douyin got off to a strong start in livestreaming and fast-moving consumer goods; Kuaishou (01024) focused on all-domain AI operating tools and tiered traffic subsidies. In instant retail, transaction value surged 112.3% year-on-year during the 2026 "618" period, mainly driven by businesses such as Meituan (03690) Instashopping, Taobao Instashopping, and JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A Miaosong. On ratings, Citi maintained "Buy" ratings on Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR, JD.com, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A, and PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (PDD.US), and maintained a "Neutral" rating on Vipshop Holdings Ltd Sponsored ADR (VIPS.US).