Shenwan Hongyuan Group: Cumulative wind and solar installed capacity exceeds 2 billion kilowatts; monthly PV installations post consecutive year-on-year increases

Shenwan Hongyuan Group released a research report stating that it recommends focusing on two main themes: 1) Monthly PV installations have posted consecutive year-on-year increases, with the industry shifting from a "scale dividend" to a "return dividend." In September, PV added 13.64GW, up 41% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months of year-on-year growth, as the construction peak season combined with centralized procurement deliveries drove a recovery in installations; against the backdrop of return repricing, inverter and energy storage leaders with overseas channels and PV-storage synergy advantages demonstrate stronger operational resilience; 2) Cumulative wind and solar installed capacity has exceeded 2 billion kilowatts, with rigid demand for consumption and regulation resources continuing to rise. As of the end of September, wind and solar accounted for 48.7% of total national installed capacity, but average utilization hours of power generation equipment fell 194 hours year-on-year, with midday consumption and curtailment pressures becoming concentrated, placing higher demands on ultra-high-voltage transmission, main and distribution grid upgrades, and flexible resources such as energy storage. Shenwan Hongyuan Group's main views are as follows: Event: On October 26, the National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-September 2026. As of the end of September 2026, cumulative national installed power generation capacity reached 4.13 billion kilowatts, up 11.2% year-on-year. Of this, wind power installed capacity was 700 million kilowatts, up 20.4% year-on-year; PV installed capacity was 1.31 billion kilowatts, up 16.5% year-on-year. Combined wind and solar installed capacity reached 2.013 billion kilowatts, surpassing 2 billion kilowatts for the first time, accounting for 48.7% of total national installed power generation capacity, with the share of new energy continuing to rise. September wind and solar new installations up over 60% year-on-year; monthly PV growth turns positive for consecutive months In September 2026, wind power and PV added 7.40GW and 13.64GW respectively, up 128% and 41% year-on-year, with combined wind and solar additions of 21.04GW, up 63% year-on-year. Among these, monthly PV installations rose 24% month-on-month from August, achieving year-on-year growth for two consecutive months; wind power saw doubled year-on-year growth in a single month amid peak-season deliveries and accelerated grid connection pace, with overall wind and solar additions returning to a high-growth channel and project construction pace improving markedly at the margin. The high base in the same period of 2025 is the core factor behind the decline in cumulative installations For January-September 2026, cumulative new wind and PV installations were 60.66GW and 110.83GW respectively, with wind power basically flat year-on-year and PV down 53.9% year-on-year. The rush installations concentrated before the 2025 policy deadline created an abnormally high base, causing year-on-year data for the first three quarters to come under pressure, which does not mean full-year installation demand shrank by the same magnitude; as the high-base effect gradually fades, subsequent installation growth is expected to continue improving. Risk warnings: Wind and solar demand falling short of expectations, power equipment price recovery falling short of expectations, and commencement progress of ultra-high-voltage and energy storage projects falling short of expectations.