Guosen: Initiates coverage on GBA AI COMP (01396) with "Outperform" rating; fair valuation HK$15.53-17.09

Guosen released a research report initiating coverage on GBA AI COMP (01396) with an "Outperform" rating and a fair valuation of HK$15.53-17.09. The bank expects GBA AI COMP's revenue for 2026-2028 to be RMB4.599 billion, RMB9.041 billion, and RMB14.329 billion, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB680 million, RMB1.23 billion, and RMB1.892 billion, respectively. Guosen's main points are as follows: GBA AI COMP focuses on intelligent computing infrastructure construction and is among China's first batch of one-stop technical service providers for high-end computing power 10,000-card clusters. With its wholly-owned subsidiary Tiandun Data as its core business, the company has built a dual-wheel-driven business model of "hardware infrastructure + software cloud platform." At the hardware layer, the company has cumulatively built more than 30,000 high-power cabinets nationwide, with an FP16 dense computing power cluster exceeding 50,000 P, and maintains rapid growth. It is among China's first batch of one-stop technical service providers for high-end computing power 10,000-card clusters, with practical experience in multiple 10,000-card clusters, serving more than 200 enterprise-level customers including domestic internet technology companies, telecom operators, and financial institutions. At the software scheduling layer, the company independently developed the "Liangzipai" computing power cloud platform, which enables efficient management and intelligent scheduling of cross-regional, heterogeneous computing power. Demand for intelligent computing power is growing rapidly, and the company is seizing the opportunity to enter the computing power leasing sector. The Scaling Law is currently expanding from pre-training to post-training and inference stages. Based on algorithmic innovations such as reinforcement learning and chain-of-thought, greater computing power investment in the post-training and inference stages can further significantly enhance the deep thinking capabilities of large models. According to data disclosed by IDC, China's intelligent computing power scale was 1,371.1 EFLOPS in 2025 and is expected to reach 10,524.3 EFLOPS by 2030, corresponding to a CAGR of 50.3% for 2025-2030. The company completed the acquisition of Tiandun Data in October 2025 and began comprehensively the computing power leasing sector. According to the company's "Voluntary Announcement - AI Business Progress Update" released on July 3, 2026, in the first half of 2026, the company newly delivered AI computing power cloud service orders amounting to more than RMB2 billion, with over 95% of orders being long-term contracts with a term of 5 years. The company has ample resources such as land and capital, and its business is expected to expand further. According to the company's 2026 interim report data, the company's currently delivered and operating FP16 dense computing power firmly ranks in the industry's first tier, with intention orders on hand exceeding RMB37 billion, and delivered, stably billed scale exceeding RMB20 billion, which can guarantee cash flow for the next 3-5 years. At the same time, the company has cumulatively obtained total intention credit facilities from financial institutions exceeding RMB50 billion, laying a solid foundation for further expanding its AI computing power infrastructure business. According to the company's "Voluntary Announcement" released on October 31, 2025, the company still has approximately 1.4 million square meters of land reserves, with ample related resources, and its business is expected to expand further. Profit forecast and valuation Guosen believes that GBA AI COMP has fully transformed into an AI intelligent computing technology service provider and ecosystem building platform, with intention orders on hand exceeding RMB37 billion. The bank expects GBA AI COMP's revenue for 2026-2028 to be RMB4.599 billion, RMB9.041 billion, and RMB14.329 billion, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB680 million, RMB1.23 billion, and RMB1.892 billion, respectively. The bank assigns the company a 2027 PE of 20-22x, corresponding to a valuation range of RMB24.598 billion-RMB27.058 billion in market capitalization, corresponding to a share price of RMB15.53-17.09, initiating coverage with an "Outperform" rating. Risk warnings Risks include contraction of high-end server procurement channels, downward monthly rental prices and declining gross margins, and customer-side orders falling short of expectations.