Zhongtai: SOFC for AIDC primary power is already economically viable to a certain extent; the complete-system segment leads in domestic commercialization.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that global SOFC competition is characterized by U.S. leaders dominating while China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe accelerate their catch-up. Looking at the domestic industrial chain by segment: in the complete-system segment, the company has partnered with Ceres to build SOFC complete-system R&D and industrialization capabilities, leading in domestic commercialization. In the key-resources segment, metal chromium consumption for connectors is approximately 5,000 tonnes per GW, with existing capacity of 30,000 tonnes (full production by 2027). In the testing segment, the company won the bid for the CGN SOFC power generation system testing service project, positioning itself in third-party testing and verification. In the full-stack in-house development segment, the company has achieved independent supply across the complete chain of "powdercellsstackssystems," with a 120kW demonstration project expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026. Zhongtai's main viewpoints are as follows: SOFC Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), as a high-temperature fuel cell, uses solid ceramic electrolyte as its core to directly convert chemical energy in fuel into electrical energy through electrochemical reactions, without combustion and unconstrained by the Carnot cycle, playing a key role as "on-site primary power" in AI data center power supply systems. Its power generation efficiency is 50%60%, combined heat and power efficiency can reach up to 90%, and carbon emissions are more than 30% lower than traditional natural gas units, while also featuring near-zero NOx/SOx emissions and zero water consumption. In terms of technology routes, planar and intermediate-temperature oxygen-ion electrolytes are currently mainstream; the support structure is evolving from electrolyte-supported (represented by Bloom Energy) to metal-supported (represented by Weichai Power, Ceres Power), with the latter constituting the long-term direction due to advantages of low temperature, low cost, and rapid startup. SOFC for AIDC primary power is already economically viable to a certain extent Construction cycle can be as fast as 90 days, grid connection requires 25 years or more, and average gas turbine delivery lead times are as long as 5 years; According to U.S. DOE calculations for 100MW-class hydrogen-fueled SOFC, LCOE is approximately US$125/MWh (without ITC), which can drop to approximately US$100/MWh under a 40% ITC scenario, lower than simple-cycle gas turbines; Under the IRA framework, SOFC can qualify for tax credits of up to 50%, and combined with cost reductions, the DOE targets system costs falling below US$900/kW before 2030. North American AIDC power shortages open up growth space On the demand side, the explosive growth of AI computing power in North America and the construction of high-density data center clusters have driven surging electricity consumption, putting enormous pressure on traditional local grid loads; On the supply side, the grid is aging with extremely slow capacity expansion, high volatility of wind/solar/storage prevents sustained stable power supply, gas turbine capacity is insufficient, and there is policy uncertainty on carbon emissions following the 2028 U.S. election; Commercialization is achievablecases including Oracle (up to 2.8GW), AEP (1GW framework), Equinix (100+MW), and CoreWeave (14MW) have been implemented successively, and Bloom Energy estimates that its 800V DC power supply solution can reduce non-computing CAPEX for a 1GW AI data center by 27% and five-year TCO by 9%. According to the bank's estimates, under neutral assumptions, SOFC shipments will reach 8.5GW by 2030, with a market size of approximately US$17.8 billion. Risk warnings: North American AI capital expenditure falling short of expectations; SOFC cost reduction and sintering yield improvement progressing slower than expected; deviations in penetration rate assumptions and market size estimates; grid expansion or gas turbine capacity recovery exceeding expectations; changes in carbon emission policy after the U.S. election; domestic SOFC industrialization progressing slower than expected; price fluctuations in metal chromium and other raw materials; discrepancies in calibers of third-party data cited in estimates; risks of deviations in market space estimates; risks that public information used in the research report may be outdated or not updated in a timely manner.