Guosen: AI agents drive demand growth, CPU prices expected to rise

Guosen released a research report stating that AI Agents are driving CPU demand, aimed at supporting Agent task orchestration, sandboxes, tool execution, etc. According to data disclosed by IDC, the global CPU market is expected to grow to US$130.78 billion by 2030, corresponding to a CAGR of 34.1% for 2025-2030; the domestic CPU market is also growing rapidly, with the market share of domestic CPUs continuing to rise. Guosen's main points are as follows: CPU is the core of computers, with performance continuing to improve CPU is the caller and executor of programs. Every instruction of a program must be parsed and executed by the CPU. When external data is input into a computer, the CPU needs to receive it; after a program finishes running, the CPU must issue instructions before the computation results can be output to the outside world. Looking at the history of CPU development, the word length, transistor count, main frequency, and core count of CPUs have continued to increase. CPU demand side: AI Agents drive CPU demand growth In 2025, the global CPU market size was US$74.737 billion, YoY +10%, of which the consumer CPU market size was US$44.530 billion, YoY +9%, and the server CPU market size was US$30.207 billion, YoY +12%. CPU demand driver one: the AI Headnode ratio is gradually shifting from 4:1 to 2:1. In 2024, Nvidia released the GB200 superchip, whose CPU:GPU configuration was raised to 1:2. As the penetration rate of Nvidia's new-generation chips rises rapidly, the AI Headnode ratio is expected to gradually shift from 4:1 to 2:1. CPU demand driver two: AI large models are gradually shifting from ChatBot to Agent workflows. The CPU is responsible for orchestrating the relationships among sub-agents. At the same time, the external resources called by each sub-agent (such as databases, search engines, etc.) also require CPU support, driving CPU demand to begin growing. In May 2026, AMD held an earnings conference call, at which AMD CEO Lisa Su raised the 2030 global server CPU market size to US$120 billion, corresponding to an annual growth rate raised to 35%+. CPU supply side: x86 architecture dominates, ARM architecture share continues to rise 1) Server CPUs: In 2025, the shares of x86 architecture and ARM architecture were 87.0% and 10.0%, respectively, with x86 architecture dominating and ARM's share continuing to rise; Intel and AMD occupy the main market share, while AWS and Nvidia's in-house CPUs are rapidly scaling up. 2) Consumer CPUs: PC CPUs mainly include desktop CPU and laptop CPU, with Intel and AMD occupying the main market share; for tablet CPUs, considering features such as low power consumption and long battery life, ARM architecture CPUs occupy the main market share, with Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek as global leaders. Global CPU prices are rising, and domestic CPU substitution is expected to accelerate In 2026, global CPU supply will fall short of demand, and Intel and AMD CPU prices will rise. Domestic substitution by domestic CPU companies such as Hygon Information Technology and HiSilicon Kunpeng is expected to accelerate. Risk warnings: risk of CPU demand falling short of expectations, risk of CPU price declines, and risk of internet giants' in-house CPUs replacing third-party CPUs.