Citi: Opens a 30-day positive catalyst watch on Agricultural Bank Of China (01288), expects Q3 profit growth to accelerate to about 10%

Citi released a research report stating that it has opened a 30-day positive catalyst watch on Agricultural Bank Of China (01288), as its strong third-quarter results are expected to beat expectations, with profit growth expected to accelerate to about 10%, implying a year-on-year increase of 6.8% for the first three quarters, compared with 4.9% growth in the first half, the highest among large mainland banks. The bank noted that this is mainly due to fair value change gains from ChangXin Memory Technologies (688825.SH), which are estimated to boost Agricultural Bank Of China's revenue/profit by high single digits/low double-digit percentage points in the third quarter, respectively, together with loan growth remaining solid at high single-digit year-on-year; stable quarter-on-quarter net interest margin; and stable asset quality. Citi believes that, considering that the risk of per-share dividend dilution has effectively materialized after Agricultural Bank Of China's refinancing plan was announced, the results are expected to strengthen investors' confidence in Agricultural Bank Of China achieving above-peer profit growth in 2026. Citi has added Agricultural Bank Of China to its top picks among H-share Bank Of China stocks.