Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US) earnings are coming again! Options traders are positioning early to guard against sharp stock price swings.
Cleveland-Cliffs' earnings report, set to be released on October 19, will become the market's focal point. Options traders, meanwhile, are bracing for impact. After the company announced its quarterly results in July, its stock price surged nearly 16% in a single day.
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. For investors in Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US), that seems to be the refrain as the steel giant prepares to report earnings.
Cleveland-Cliffs' earnings, due Oct. 19, will be in focus. Options traders are bracing. After the company reported quarterly results in July, the stock surged nearly 16% in a single dayalmost double its long-term historical average single-day move of just over 8%. Since then, traders worried about a repeat have aggressively pushed up short-term implied volatility (IV). On top of that, short interest in the stock is now near 14%, and the CEO is known for taking on the bears. He has said he likes to boil the shorts "like a frog" and that they "picked on the wrong guy."
With comments like that, it's no surprise options traders are on alert for sharp swings in Cleveland-Cliffs shares. For strategic options premium sellers, this elevated short-term fear creates a rather attractive opportunity to employ a "strangle-swap" strategy. Traders or strategists sometimes call this a "double-diagonal" strategy. This structure allows traders to take advantage of the expected decline in implied volatility after earningsthe so-called "volatility crush" or "vol crush"while avoiding the unlimited risk of naked strangle selling.
To execute this "strangle-swap" strategy, a trader sells a shorter-dated strangle while buying a longer-dated strangle, thereby defining the risk. The key to this trade lies in the difference in the rate of implied volatility decay between the shorter-dated November options sold and the longer-dated January options bought.
Fearing a repeat of the violent move after the last quarterly report, traders are aggressively buying November options. Whether or not such a violent move actually recurs, once Cleveland-Cliffs reports on the 19th, that binary uncertainty disappears, causing November implied volatility to plungea phenomenon commonly known as a "volatility crush" or "vol crush." However, because January options have significantly more time until expiration, they are less sensitive to this immediate implied-volatility collapse and also suffer much slower time decay (theta).
If Cleveland-Cliffs shares stay between $11 and $17 after earnings, this strategy's profitability will be maximized. In that case, the short November strangle will rapidly lose value. Traders can then buy back the short option legs for a small fraction of the $0.80 premium initially collected, or let them expire worthless. That way, traders can continue to hold the January 10/18 strangle at little to no cost, gaining free exposure to future stock moves through year-end.
However, if Cleveland-Cliffs shares repeat or even exceed July's explosive move, this strategy will lose money. Because the $11/$17 short strike range is narrower than the $10/$18 long strike range, in the event of a sharp one-directional move, the intrinsic value of the short options will grow faster than the long options can offset in the short term.
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