Views surge ninefold, profitable for three consecutive months: Has DUIBA (01753)'s AI short drama money-printing machine proven viable?

On the morning of October 14, DUIBA (01753)'s stock price surged as much as 48% on heavy volume. This was not a simple earnings disclosure, but confirmation of a profitability inflection point. The rally stemmed from a voluntary announcement by the company that morning: DUIBA's AI short drama business recorded net profit for three consecutive months in July, August, and September, with new playback views across all platforms exceeding 45.8 billion in Q3, more than 9 times the 5 billion total in the first half of the year. First, two sets of hard data: In terms of playback views, July recorded 6.8 billion, August 12.6 billion, and September 26.4 billion, with month-over-month growth exceeding 100% for three consecutive months. Q3 totaled 45.8 billion, 9 times the first-half total. The number of hit dramas surpassing 100 million views grew from 22 in July to 32 in September, with a peak hit rate of 5.7% for surpassing 100 million views, compared to an industry average of only about 0.47% DUIBA is more than 10 times the industry average. In terms of profitability, the company recorded net profit for three consecutive months in July, August, and September. DUIBA's management said during the August interim report that "economies of scale will gradually materialize." Less than two months later, that judgment has come to fruition. Achieving profitability while playback views grew 9-fold shows that this is not growth built by burning cash on user acquisition, but rather cost structure optimization under an AI full-chain production model: approximately 80% of production processes are generated with one click through a workflow platform, per-person monthly output stably reaches 3 long dramas of 70 minutes each, the self-developed screenwriting Agent boosts human efficiency by about 5 times, capacity expansion no longer depends on linear headcount growth, and marginal costs are systematically compressed. In fact, the market's perception of DUIBA still lingers on "a points-based SaaS company crossing over into short dramas." But the Q3 report reveals a clearer positioning: an AI-Native content platform. Its core competitiveness is not a particular hit drama, but an AI workflow platform and self-developed Agent matrix covering the entire process of "screenwritingproductiondistributioncommercialization." This system transforms content production from "driven by individual talent" into "systematized and replicable," and then continuously iterates through a data closed loop of "productiondistributionfeedbackoptimization." The 5.7% hit rate is not luck; it is the output of systemic capability. More critically, this capability is being replicated in two directions: overseas, localized dramas have already been released on TikTok and YouTube, and a self-developed overseas theater App is planned for launch in Q4; on WeChat Green Bubble, according to Guosen's October 12 management exchange minutes, the company has already launched operations and is supporting them with video account ad spending and heating, with significant growth. If the market is still pricing DUIBA using the old framework of a "loss-making SaaS company," DUIBA's fundamentals have already switched tracks. On the net asset dimension, as of the 2026 interim report, DUIBA's net asset value per share was approximately RMB 1.09 (about HKD 1.2), and the current stock price corresponds to a PB of less than 0.6 times the stock price is below net asset value per share, meaning the market has not paid any premium for the AI short drama business. On the peer valuation dimension, A-share short drama concept stocks generally enjoy high valuations: COL Global Co., Ltd. has a PS of about 11 times, Kunlun Tech about 10 times, and IReader Technology about 3 times; while DUIBA, based on full-year 2026 revenue of RMB 1.2 billion and a current market capitalization of about HKD 1 billion, has a PS of less than 1 time. Even using the most conservative PS estimate of 2 times, the corresponding market capitalization would be about HKD 2.4 billion, still leaving room to double from the current level. On the earnings expectation dimension, according to Guosen's exchange minutes, DUIBA's gross margin was 17.1% and net margin was -5.8% in the first half of 2026, suppressed by investment in short drama infrastructure and business expansion; but based on single-month revenue exceeding RMB 100 million in June 2026 and the latest announcement confirming profitability in the Q3 AI short drama business, DUIBA's second-half 2026 revenue is expected to be no less than RMB 800 million, with full-year revenue no less than RMB 1.2 billion, and the company is expected to break even or be profitable for the full year. In other words, what is being bought now is an AI content platform at "below book value + PS under 1 time" that has already been profitable for three consecutive months and is expected to deliver profits at a single-digit PE in 2027. The concept phase is over, the performance phase has just begun, yet the valuation is still at the starting point. In summary, DUIBA's story has moved from the concept of "the first AI short drama stock" to the financial statements of "three consecutive months of profitability." The stock price surge on October 14 was the market's first confirmation of the profitability inflection point. But the real re-rating may have only just begun. When the market switches from "concept speculation" to "performance-based pricing," for an AI content platform with a PB of less than 0.6 times, a PS of less than 1 time, consecutive profitability, overseas and Green Bubble channels ramping up, and an APP short drama alliance expanding monetization in the second half, value return is only a matter of time.