Northeast: NPO and CPO open up growth space for optical interconnect; Chinese manufacturers make forward-looking in overseas supply chains.

Northeast released a research report stating that AI computing power demand is driving the expansion of capital expenditure by cloud vendors, and the high-speed optical module industry continues to boom. The revenue of leading optical module companies shows a strong correlation with the capital expenditure of overseas cloud vendors. The growth in AI training and inference demand is accelerating data center construction, providing sustained demand support for high-speed optical interconnect products. As 800G and 1.6T products ramp up, industry growth is driven by both demand expansion and product upgrades. Leading companies with customer resources, technological accumulation, and large-scale delivery capabilities are expected to continue benefiting. Northeast's main points are as follows: Super node expansion drives optical interconnect toward chip proximity, with NPO and CPO opening up industry growth space AI computing power competition is evolving from single-card performance to cluster collaboration efficiency, making Scale-up interconnect an important incremental scenario for optical communications. NPO deploys independently packaged optical engines near chips, reducing link loss while balancing manufacturing yield and maintainability, making it an important path for optical interconnect upgrades at the current stage; CPO co-packages optical engines with chips to further improve bandwidth density and energy efficiency, but still faces challenges in heat dissipation, precision coupling, and maintenance. Pluggable, NPO, and CPO are expected to coexist long-term based on application requirements, driving value increases in optical engines, light sources, and high-density connectors. Domestic NPO ecosystem accelerates construction, optical communication companies upgrade toward optical engines and system-level solutions Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, and other vendors continue to advance research, verification, and pilot deployment of near-package optical interconnect platforms, with interface standardization and industry collaboration strengthening in parallel. NPO retains an independent optical engine delivery form, which helps domestic manufacturers reuse optoelectronic design, precision coupling, reliability verification, and large-scale manufacturing capabilities, and extend from traditional optical modules to high-density optical interconnect solutions. Domestic companies participating in the formulation of next-generation architecture and interface standards are expected to further enhance their influence in the industry chain. US FCC draft restrictions difficult to implement in the short term, comprehensive ban faces multiple constraints According to the latest FCC rules, the scope of restrictions extends from "complete units" to "components with logic hardware." Current component restrictions mainly target logic-bearing hardware components produced by entities on the regulated list. Passive optical devices without logic functions are not within the scope of this restriction, and optical modules are not listed as an independent sanctioned category. Chinese manufacturers occupy an important position in the global high-speed optical module market, with Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink Technology Inc. accounting for approximately 40% of the global optical module market share. North American customers would need to go through product certification, capacity expansion, and yield ramp-up to switch suppliers, and US manufacturers would struggle to fill the supply gap. US technology restrictions on China may extend from communications main equipment and semiconductors to the mid-to-downstream of the AI computing power industry chain, making overseas layout an important consideration for Chinese manufacturers. Domestic manufacturers make forward-looking supply chain arrangements, accelerating overseas capacity layout Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink Technology Inc. continue to advance construction and capacity release at their Thailand production bases, enhancing their ability to undertake overseas customer orders and ensure stable delivery. Domestic manufacturers in optical chips, electrical chips, and other segments are striving to make breakthroughs. Yuanjie Semiconductor Technology, Accelink Technologies, and other companies mainly target the domestic market with small export exposure and are largely unaffected. Suzhou TFC Optical Communication, Optowide Technologies, and other companies focus primarily on passive optical device businesses and are not directly affected by the ban. As the global supply chain deepens integration, companies with overseas large-scale manufacturing capabilities, core technology accumulation, and stable customer relationships are expected to maintain competitive advantages long-term. Risk warnings: Risk of downstream demand fluctuations, risk of intensified industry competition.