GF SEC: Lower export tax rates for small home appliances; bullish on the profit margin recovery potential of cleaning appliances in 2026.

GF SEC released a research report stating that white goods have achieved steady performance growth, possess stable ROE and high dividend advantages, and are expected to benefit from the stimulus of trade-in policies. Black goods leaders enjoy a triple resonance of product iteration dividends, improved domestic competitive landscape, and overseas share expansion. The logic of improving competition landscape in cleaning appliances continues, and the profit margin recovery elasticity in 2026 is favored. The two-wheeler industry is seeing improved domestic sales + rapid advancement of overseas expansion into Southeast Asia. GF SEC's main viewpoints are as follows: Market Review Since September 1 (September 1~September 29), the home appliance sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.1pct. By sub-sector, since the beginning of the month, kitchen and bathroom appliances (+1.84%) performed best, followed by home appliance parts II (-1.01%) and small home appliances (-2.58%). White Goods According to AVC data, since September (2026.08.31-2026.09.20), online retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines were -27.8%, -15.9%, and -13.4% YoY respectively; from September to date (2026.08.31-2026.09.27), offline retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines were -18.66%, -6.72%, and -5.04% YoY respectively. Black Goods Color TV prices are under pressure, and top brand shares are diverging. According to the latest weekly data for September (26W36-39, 2026.08.31-2026.09.27), online MiniLED penetration rate was 29.81%, -3.25pct YoY, -0.68pct MoM; online retail volume shares of Redmi/Hisense/Vidda/TCL/Skyworth/FFALCON/Changhong were 22.95%/14.80%/12.05%/10.83%/9.58%/7.88%/3.14%, with YoY changes of +4.51/+0.69/+2.40/-1.68/+1.49/+0.02/-0.20pct respectively. Small Home Appliances Since Q3 (2026.06.29-2026.09.20), online sales in the robot vacuum industry were -19% YoY, with Ecovacs Robotics/Roborock/Narwal at -18%/-6%/-57% YoY respectively, and shares of 30%/33%/8%/8%, with YoY changes of +0.3pct/+4.6pct/+0.9pct/-7.2pct respectively. In the wet dry vacuum industry during the same period, online sales were -12% YoY, with Tineco/Roborock at -23%/+20% YoY respectively, and shares of 31%/32%, with YoY changes of -4.4pct/+8.5pct respectively. China and the US reached a consensus on reciprocal tariff reductions on approximately $30 billion each of non-sensitive goods, with US tariff reductions on Chinese goods including small home appliances, targeting rates reduced to most-favored-nation (MFN) levels or even lower. Risk warnings: rising raw material prices; significant exchange rate fluctuations; weakening industry demand; intensifying industry competition.